Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) among the residents of Uzbekistan showed a slight decrease in December 2024 compared to the previous month, reaching 129.2 points. These figures were presented by Freedom Holding, the company responsible for compiling the index.

The decline was attributed to three of the five sub-indices that contribute to the overall score. The most noticeable drop was observed in the sub-index concerning the favorability of current conditions for major purchases. At the same time, forecasts about the economic situation showed significant improvement.

Overall, 2024 proved to be a challenging year for Uzbekistan: the consumer confidence index dropped by 6.1 points, with almost all sub-indices showing noticeable declines. In December, the sub-index regarding the favorability of current conditions for major purchases fell from 84.2 to 79.5 points, marking the worst result in the entire study period. Year-on-year, this sub-index decreased by 7.2 points. The proportion of Uzbeks who consider the conditions for large expenditures favorable dropped to 36.9%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than in November and 4.2 percentage points less than the previous year.

Regional analysis showed the greatest improvement of this indicator in Tashkent, where the share of respondents with a positive assessment rose from 52.5% to 61.8%. However, the leader in December was Namangan region, where 70.1% of residents considered the conditions for major purchases favorable, surpassing the previous leader, Fergana region. At the same time, the index declined in four regions, with the most pessimistic attitudes observed in Tashkent region, where only 58% of respondents expect an improvement in the economic situation over the next 12 months.

The economic situation forecast sub-index, in contrast, helped to offset the worsening conditions for large purchases. In December, it increased by 3.2 points, reaching 157.2 points — the best result since March 2024. Over the year, this sub-index decreased by only 1.8 points, while other sub-indices fell by 5 to 9 points. In December, 65.6% of Uzbekistan’s population expressed hope for an improvement in the economic situation, which was higher than the November figure (63.6%) but still lower than the December 2023 level (68.9%).

Inflation expectations and assessments among Uzbeks showed positive dynamics in December after the November increase. The share of those who reported a significant rise in prices over the past year dropped to 46.7% (down from 50.7% in November). However, the monthly figure slightly increased from 30.8% to 31.1%.

Expectations for currency devaluation also decreased, reaching their lowest levels in the past four months. Despite the ongoing depreciation of the Uzbek soum for the fifth consecutive month, the pace of devaluation remained moderate: the dollar exchange rate increased by 0.5%. The proportion of citizens expecting a weakening of the national currency within the next year fell from 60.5% in November to 58.6% in December. In the short term, the proportion of pessimists decreased even further — from 43.5% to 39.6%.

In the broader context of Central Asia, December 2024 was moderately positive in terms of inflation expectations and devaluation forecasts. In Uzbekistan, the monthly dynamics of the CCI were neutral, which partially compensated for the weak results of November. However, over the year, the index significantly decreased, dropping to second place in the regional ranking, overtaken by Kyrgyzstan. The weakest results in Uzbekistan were associated with the assessment of improving personal material well-being over the next 12 months. Additionally, the proportion of respondents who reported actual improvements in their financial situation and the country’s economic situation decreased over the year.

In other countries of the region, the dynamics of the consumer confidence index varied. In Kyrgyzstan, the CCI remained neutral in December after an increase in November, allowing the year to close with positive dynamics. In this country, the share of citizens noting an improvement in the economic situation and conditions for large purchases significantly increased.

In Tajikistan, on the other hand, the CCI fell sharply in December, which affected the overall annual result. However, the country remains a regional leader by a significant margin, despite the deteriorating indicators at the end of the year. Kazakhstan finished 2024 neutrally: the December improvement in the index offset the decline in November.

As part of the study conducted by Freedom Finance Global, 3,600 respondents were surveyed monthly in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, 1,600 in Kyrgyzstan, and 1,200 in Tajikistan. The methodology was adapted to regional specifics and included phone interviews conducted in the native languages of the respondents.