Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) – On 5 November 2020, armed clashes resumed between the federal authorities and the northern state of Tigray, where the separatist group Popular Front for Liberation (NPLF) has been operating for many years. The formal reason for the start of the conflict was an attempt by the NFOT to take control of the Ethiopian Armed Forces base in Tigray, which forced the government to use forceful methods of pressure.

I. Since the beginning of the conflict, about 1 thousand civilians have died, and more than 40 thousand people were forced to leave the region. In this regard, UN experts warn about the risks of mass casualties among the civilian population and a serious migration crisis.

According to UN estimates, if the war continues, in the coming weeks the number of internally displaced persons may increase to 200 thousand people, and more than 100 thousand people. risk facing acute food shortages due to the blockage of humanitarian corridors.

This prospect is forcing international organizations and world powers to actively intervene in the situation in order to transfer the conflict to a diplomatic channel. It is noted that the conflict destabilizes the entire Horn of Africa, adjacent to the world’s transport routes for goods, including oil and gas.

However, the UN Security Council meeting on the Tigray issue, held on 24 November 2020, ended without the adoption of a resolution. This was largely aided by a collective request from African states to give the African Union more time for diplomatic efforts.

At the same time, Prime Minister A. Ahmed rejects any international interference in the conflict. According to him, "the international community needs to stand on the sidelines until the Ethiopian government asks him for help."

Taking this into account, experts believe that the prospects for an early end to the conflict are unlikely. Neither the central authorities, nor the separatist grouping, the People’s Liberation Front (PPLF), operating in Tygra, intend to lay down their arms in the near future and sit down for such negotiations.

Meanwhile, the government forces with great military superiority have already managed to penetrate deep into Tigray and take control of several cities, and on the eve of the government forces announced the beginning of a military operation to take the capital of the "rebellious" region - Mekele.

In response, the separatists threatened to continue resistance to the movement of federal army personnel, "putting under arms" up to 250 thousand people.

II. In the current situation, experts point out on the insurmountable nature of the disagreements between the central authorities and the separatist group - the NFOT, arguing this with the following factors.

First, the state of Tigray, which has autonomous status, is trying to achieve its independence. For these purposes, in September 2020, elections to the State Council were held in the region, not agreed with the government of the country. The representatives of the NFOT won them. However, the Ethiopian authorities refused to cooperate with the new body and froze budget allocations for the "rebellious" region. It was these disputes that led to a direct military confrontation.

Secondly, representatives of the NFOT and the indigenous population of the region, the Tygrais, have actually ruled Ethiopia over the past 30 years, and Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018 led to their expulsion from the power structures. The group was even more angered by the adopted in August of this year. A.Ahmed decision on the postponement of parliamentary elections for an indefinite period, which allowed the Prime Minister of the country to stay in power.

Third, disagreements have also arisen over the structural reforms of Ahmed, who is trying to end the practice of ethnic rule in Ethiopia, where the regions are ethnically based and enjoy broad autonomy.

On the whole, the "continuing outbreak of violence" in Ethiopia is regarded by most experts as a result of the intensified struggle for power between various political clans, which are guided by the interests of certain ethnic groups. Given the similar interethnic nature of the conflict, experts warn that the prolongation of the crisis could exacerbate the already intensifying interethnic contradictions in a multinational African country.