Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IPMI) assessed the consequences of the earthquake in Turkiye for Uzbekistan, and also analyzed the potential for cooperation between the OTS countries in monitoring natural phenomena and timely response to them.

An assessment of the impact of the consequences of the earthquake in Turkiye on the economy of Uzbekistan was carried out in such areas as foreign trade, investment, labor migration and GDP.

In 2022, Uzbekistan’s exports to Turkiye (US$1.5 billion) mainly consist of raw materials (copper, zinc and plastics), while imports (US$1.7 billion) of machinery and equipment, chemicals, pigments and pharmaceuticals. Based on the results of the analysis, the following changes in trade between countries were revealed:

- large-scale projects to restore the regions affected by the earthquake may increase the demand for imports of copper, zinc, plastics, aluminum, as well as food products from Uzbekistan;

- the current situation may have a negative impact on the export of cotton yarn to Turkiye (US$523.3 million in 2022), as Kahramanmaras, which is one of the centers of the textile industry, was heavily damaged by the earthquake;

- Textile production in Uzbekistan may suffer due to the lack of coloring pigments and fabrics imported from Turkiye.

An increase in public spending and a sharp rise in inflation amid the earthquake in Turkiye could affect the income of labor migrants and reduce the outflow of remittances from this country (US$230 million in 2021).

The assessment of the impact of the earthquake in Turkiye on the economy of Uzbekistan is based on the scenarios proposed by The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Thus, a reduction in Turkiye’s GDP growth can reduce Uzbekistan’s GDP growth from 0.03 p.p. up to 0.1 p.p. in 2023.

A striking example is the experience of Japan in 2011, which showed that during periods of natural disasters, the concept of "man against the elements" comes to the fore. This encourages people to unite in order to overcome the severe consequences of devastating disasters:

- emergency rescue teams from 23 countries were sent to the country;

- offers of assistance were received from 163 countries and 43 international organizations;

- The country received emergency supplies and donations totaling more than 17.5 billion yen.

The OTS countries have a significant scientific and practical potential for monitoring and analyzing natural phenomena (earthquakes), as well as for timely response to them:

- actively develop national institutions for the study and prevention of seismic activity;

- establish cooperation in bilateral (6 agreements) and multilateral formats (9 agreements) to counteract and eliminate the consequences of earthquakes.

Also, the Asian Center for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Center for Emergency Situations and Disaster Risk Reduction operate on the territory of the Central Asian countries.

As a result of the study, proposals were prepared to provide assistance to Turkiye from the OTS countries:

1. Priority measures: saving people and providing them with the necessary primary assistance.

2. Further measures of interaction between the OTS countries: restoration of objects and economy of the areas destroyed by the earthquake.

3. Long-term action: regular interaction on response to natural disasters and elimination of their consequences.