Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- A trilateral gas union with Russia could improve the balance of supply and demand for natural gas in Central Asia. This was stated in the World Bank’s report on achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

The report notes that in the short term, Central Asian countries may face declining gas supplies and a choice between joining a trilateral gas union with Russia and reducing exports to China.

The deterioration of the region’s gas balance due to growing demand and stagnant production in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan does not allow the countries of Central Asia to simultaneously export gas to China and supply the domestic market in the autumn-winter period.

In 2021, Central Asia supplied 42 billion cubic meters to China. m of gas through three branches of the Turkmenistan - China pipeline and 15 billion cubic meters. m to Russia. However, in 2022, the countries of the region reduced gas supplies to China by 5%, and in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the drop was 26% and 42%, respectively.

According to the World Bank, in the medium term, gas supplies from Russia to Central Asia will amount to 10 billion cubic meters, half of which can be re-exported to China. However, this will require additional modernization of the pipeline gas infrastructure.

The World Bank notes that modeling results show that an additional 10 billion cubic meters. m of Russian gas in the region by 2025 will help maintain stable levels of exports from Central Asia to China and ensure growing domestic consumption in the region in 2023-25.

Without the creation of a gas union, the level of gas production and exports in Central Asia will decrease in the period from 2023 to 2025.

To improve energy security, the World Bank proposes to intensify regional gas trade in the region and increase imports from Turkmenistan.