Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In March 2020, the increase in the average level of consumer prices and tariffs for the month amounted to 1,3%.

In January-March 2020, prices and tariffs in the consumer market increased by an average of 2,8%.  In annual terms (by March 2019), the average increase in prices for goods and services amounted to 13,6%.

The calculation of the average monthly CPI growth for January-March showed that for the indicated period of 2020 it amounted to 0.9%, while for the same period in 2019 - 1.5%.

The most significant gap in the consolidated CPI by December of the previous year during January-March 2019 and 2020 was recorded in February (3.1% versus 1.4%, or 1.7 points, respectively), it was minimal in January (1.5% versus 0.6%, or 0.9 points), and in March amounted to 1.5 points.

The annual consolidated CPI in March 2020, compared with the same indicator of the previous month, increased by 0.1 points (from 13.5% to 13.6%). At the same time, as in the previous month, annual consolidated CPI in March 2019 and 2020 was equal.

With regard to price changes in the context of enlarged groups, the leadership in the growth of prices and tariffs belongs to food products, which rose by 1.9% in March this year, while non-food products added 0.9%, while services - 0.8%.

With a general increase in the consolidated CPI in March of the current year for the month by 1.3 percentage points (hereinafter – p.p.), 0.8 p.p. associated with rising food prices. The increase in prices for non-food products added an additional 0.3 p.p. to the monthly consolidated indicator. Due to the growth of tariffs for paid services, the consolidated CPI additionally increased by 0.2 p.p.

In March 2020, food products accounted for 62.1%, non-food products - 23.5%, services - 14.4% of the total monthly CPI growth.

In general, for the I quarter of 2020, the level of prices for food products increased by 4.3%, non-food products - by 1.7%, services - by 1.5%.

Assessment of the contribution of price changes, taking into account the specific gravity of each enlarged group, showed that in January-March 2020, the dominance of food products remained monthly. Inflationary pressure from price changes on food products during this period gradually increased from 0.4 p.p. (January) up to 1.9 p.p. (March). The impact of rising prices for non-food goods and paid services to the population on the growth of the composite indicator by December 2019 was less pronounced. So, for non-food products, this indicator from January to March increased from 0.1 p.p. up to 0.6 p.p., and for services - from 0.1 p.p. up to 0.3 p.p.

In specific indicators, the influence of food products in March 2020 accounted for 66.6%, non-food products - 21.3%, services - 12.1% of the total growth of the consolidated CPI by December 2019.

Regarding the impact of price changes in the main groups of goods and services on the growth of the consolidated CPI in annual terms, in March this year due to rising prices for food products this indicator increased by 6.95 p.p., non-food products - by 3, 45 p.p., services - by 3.23 p.p.

In percentage terms, the share of food products accounted for about 51.0% of the total growth of the consolidated CPI by March 2019. The influence of non-food goods and services is approximately equal proportions and amounts to 25.3% and 23.7%, respectively.

In March 2020, food products for the month rose by 1.9%, or 0.6 points more than the same period last month

Since the beginning of 2020, the average price increase for goods of this group amounted to 4.3%, with an average monthly increase of 1.4%. Compared with March 2019, food products on average became more expensive by 16.4%.

Of the main observed groups of food products, prices increased most significantly over the month for fruits and vegetables (5.0%), meat, poultry and fish (1.7%), bakery products (1.2%), alcoholic beverages (0.8%) , relative to the end of 2019 - for fruits and vegetables (12.5%), as well as meat, poultry and fish (4.1%). Catering for the month has become more expensive by 1.6%, since the beginning of the year - by 2.5%

In March 2019, bread products (including cereals and legumes) rose by 0.5%, including cereals and legumes - on average by 1.3%, flour - by 0.2%. In general, for the I quarter, the goods of this group on average became more expensive by 3.4%, including cereals and legumes - by 5.1%, flour - by 2.2%, bread from flour of various varieties - within 0.4% - 3.2%.

Among the main types of meat products,in March 2020 the most significantly increased prices for mutton - by 3.1% (from the beginning of the year - by 6.2%), beef (except boneless meat) - by 1.8% (4.8% ), boneless beef - by 1.5% (5.1%), chicken legs and drumstick - by 1.5% (0.5%), other poultry - by 1.4% (decrease from the beginning of the year - by 1.2%), live and chilled fish - by 1.4% (increase in prices for the quarter by 5.2%).

Eggs in March this year for a month became cheaper by 3.5%, and since the beginning of the year, the price level for them fell by 2.8%.

Fresh milk for the month increased in price by 1.9% (for January-March 2020 - by 3.8%), suzma - by 1.3% (2.4%), cream - by 1.2% (2,6%), kefir and yogurt - 1.1% (3.1%).

Sugar prices in March this year increased by 0.7% (since the beginning of the year - by 1.3%). Confectionery products on average added 1.3% (2.2%), coffee and tea - 0.5% (1.0%), other food products (salt, spices, flavoring, sauces, etc.) - by 0.7% (1.1%).

Among oil and fat products in March 2020, vegetable oils, animals and melted fats for the month became more expensive by 1.3%, butter - by 1.1%, margarine - by 1.2%. Since the beginning of the year, these products have risen in price by 2.0% on average, including animal and melted fats - by 3.6%, butter - by 2.7%, margarine - by 2.2%, vegetable oils - by 1,8%.

Of the fruits and vegetables, which rose by 5.0% over the month, the most pronounced increase was in the price of garlic (26.6%), lemons (16.9%), tomatoes (10.9%) and potatoes (10.6% ) Price reduction was recorded for fresh, as well as salted and pickled cucumbers (by 1.4% and 0.1%).

Relative to the end of 2019, fruits, vegetables and potatoes on average became more expensive by 12.5%, while garlic (1.5 times) was the leader in price increases. Cheaper than in December 2019, bananas (1.4%), turnips (0.2%), carrots, salted and sauerkraut (0.1%) were sold.

As for the change in consumer prices for the main groups of food products in annual terms, then, for the second month in a row, eggs (28.2%) continue to hold the lead in price growth relative to the corresponding month last year.

An analysis of the contribution of price increases of the main food product groups to the growth of the consolidated CPI for the month showed that in March this year, as in the previous month, the leaders included fruits and vegetables, meat, poultry and fish, as well as bakery products. In total, they ensured an increase in the consolidated CPI by 0.65 p.p., which is over 79% of the influence of food products.

By December 2019, the most significant share of food products in the structure of the composite CPI belongs to fruits and vegetables and meat products, as well as bakery products (the total impact is 1.55 p.p., or about 56.0% of all goods and services). As for the contribution to the growth of the consolidated CPI in annual terms, meat, poultry and fish (2.50 p.p.) and bakery products (1.64 p.p.) occupy the leading positions in food products.

In March 2020, non-food products on average became more expensive by 0,9%. Relative to December 2019, the price increase for goods of this group amounted to 1.7%, and to March 2019 - 10.0%.

In March 2020, of the main observed groups of non-food products, the most significant price increases were recorded for personal transport (6.9%, including observed types of cars - an average of 8.7%) and tobacco products (4.1%) . Building materials rose 0.9% over the month, clothes, fabrics and yarn 0.8%, shoes 0.7%, basic household goods and electrical appliances 0.3%.

Comparison of the CPI to the previous month for the main groups of non-food products for March 2020 and 2019 showed that clothes, shoes, personal hygiene products, detergents and jewelry, jewelry more expensive in March last year, while the rise in prices for fabrics and yarn, household textiles, cultural goods, building materials, medicines, fuel for automobiles, basic household goods and electrical appliances was higher in March this year.

Printed products continue to hold the lead in price increases relative to December 2019 (11.9%), and in annual terms fuel prices for automobiles (20.4%) increased more significantly than others.

As for the contribution of price changes of the main groups of nonfood products to the growth of the consolidated CPI for the month, according to the results of March 2020, the most significant contribution, taking into account the specific weight, was the increase in prices for clothes (0.07 p.p.) and personal transport (0,06 p.p.). Due to rise of prices for construction materials and medicines, the composite indicator increased by 0.06 p.p., shoes and tobacco products added 0.02 p.p.

Clothing and personal transport are leaders in non-food products in terms of their contribution to the growth of the consolidated CPI for January-March 2020 (0.23 p.p., or 39.0% of the total impact of non-food products). In the growth of the composite indicator by March 2019, the most significant contribution was made by price changes for clothes (0.74 p.p.), fuel for cars (0.49 p.p.), shoes and medicines (0.27 p.p. each), as well as construction materials (0.26 p.p.).

In March 2020, the increase in tariffs for paid services to the population for the month amounted to 0.8%. Relative to the end of 2019, tariff growth amounted to 1.5%, and in annual terms - 14.1%.

Of the observed types of paid services to the population, education services (3.2%) more expensive than others in March this year, including due to an increase of 7.0% in the tuition fees at state universities, while an increase in the cost of other observed services in education did not exceed 1.1%. Medical services for the month became more expensive by 1.8%, household services - by 0.9%, passenger transport and leisure services - by 0.8%.

In general, in the first three months of 2020, more significantly more than others, services for recreation (5.5%), education (3.4%) and domestic (2.9%) went up. As for the change in tariffs for paid services to the population in annual terms, of the main observed groups, their most noticeable growth was registered for the services of preschool educational institutions (20.2%), education (18.0%), housing and communal services (17.2%), household services (16.8%).

Assessing the contribution of tariff changes of the main service groups to the growth of the consolidated CPI for March 2020, we can say that the leadership belongs to education services (0.06 p.p., or about 31.6% of the total impact of services).

Then, in decreasing order, household services and medical services (0.04 p.p. each) follow, which in total provided 42.2% of the total impact of paid services.

Of the main observed types of paid services to the population, the contribution to increasing tariffs for household services (0.13 p.p., or about 39.4% of the total impact of paid services) was more significant in the growth of the consolidated CPI relative to the end of 2019. In addition, a significant contribution was made by the increase in the cost of educational (0.07 p.p., or 21.2%) and medical services (0.06 p.p., or 18.2%). As for the impact on the growth of the composite indicator in annual terms, the leading positions belong to housing and communal services (1.04 p.p.), household services (0.77 p.p.), passenger transport (0.39 p.p.), education (0.36 p.p.), as well as the services of preschool educational institutions (0.11 p.p.).