Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - The development of the military-political situation in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) is accompanied by a steady deterioration in relations between regional forces. The current situation is characterized by a state of delicate balance, as the region retains a high potential for conflict. This is primarily due to the shift in the APR of the center of world trade and economy, as well as the presence of diverse interests of key factors. Against the background of the persistence of unresolved conflicts and territorial disputes, the presence of nuclear powers in the Asia-Pacific region, the growing competition for leadership between the United States and the PRC gives particular tension in the region.

I. Territorial claims are a serious source of conflicts in the APR. In recent years, their potential has increased against the backdrop of the economic crisis, continuous population growth, competition for the possession of natural resources and control over trade communications. As a result, an “Asian arc of instability” was formed in the APR zone. First of all, this concerns the islands in the Japan, East China and South China Seas.

The most significant events among territorial disputes took place around the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The interests of the parties in this archipelago lie in the geo-economic and military-strategic planes.

The disputed areas of land and sea provide control over the waters of the South China Sea - the key to the Strait of Malacca, through which goods worth US$5.3 trillion per year pass (about 25% of world trade) and up to 60% of foreign trade of the PRC, incl. up to 80% of imported hydrocarbons. China is worried about the capabilities of the US Navy, which at any time can block the narrow strait (its width at its narrowest point is only 2.5 km).

In the Asia-Pacific region, China continues to strengthen its position as a world power and the main rival of the United States.

From a military point of view, the PRC has turned the South China Sea into a zone where it can control the access of foreign naval forces. Beijing has embarked on an ambitious Armed Forces modernization program that includes expanding its naval, air and airborne capabilities.

The balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region has actually changed, and the Chinese army is now the main force in the region.

II. In response to Beijing’s actions, Washington decided to launch operations to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. American warships demonstratively pass through the exclusive economic zone designated by China, not recognizing its compliance with the norms of the Convention on the Law of the Sea.

In addition, Washington is resorting to costly diplomatic and economic policies to internationally counter the strengthening of the PRC and strengthening the unity of the so-called member states. The “anti-Chinese coalition” (Japan, Republic of Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines), as well as regional players from the ASEAN states (Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand, Singapore, partly Vietnam) oriented towards them.

A new Military Alliance Treaty was signed between Japan and the United States, according to which Tokyo can provide military assistance to regional allies in case of aggression against them. At the same time, the main military component of the American presence in Japan is the US Air Force and Navy bases with an aircraft carrier strike group.

Also, the United States has consolidated its military presence in Australia, which has a great strategic influence on the sea routes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Washington and Canberra signed an agreement on the deployment of 2,500 American marines in Australia, the basing of naval ships and air force aircraft.

An agreement was reached with Manila to strengthen the presence of the US Navy and its ground forces in the Philippines. The treaty will allow the American side to build and operate facilities at 5 Philippine military bases in the immediate vicinity of the disputed waters in the South China Sea.

The United States also established military allies with Thailand. Washington enjoys full access to its military bases. The United States continues to view Thailand as one of the main partners in the region.

The United States maintains a close relationship with Singapore. In addition to trade, both states share security interests. In accordance with the Agreement on Mutual Provision of Supply and Technical Services, the United States is able to use the country’s military infrastructure.

The United States attaches particular importance to its military presence in Indonesia due to its close proximity to the strategically important Strait of Malacca. For the same reason, the United States has also established its military presence in Brunei, which allows it to control sea routes throughout the South China Sea.

The United States views Vietnam as a promising regional partner. This country can turn into a "medium-sized power" capable of exerting significant influence in the APR.

III. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain the most dangerous regional issue affecting global security.

Negotiations on denuclearization between the United States and North Korea stalled after the DPRK leadership announced that Washington was in no hurry to provide Pyongyang with acceptable terms for a possible nuclear deal. The example of the unilateral US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran also played a role.

Under these conditions, the United States is striving to maintain its military presence in South Korea, where 28,500 American troops are deployed to "defend the country in the event of a war with the DPRK."

At the same time, Vietnam has ferried new missile launchers from the mainland to bases on some islands in the Spratly archipelago, raising tensions with the PRC. Beijing believes that the Philippines and Vietnam are deliberately using US support to escalate tensions in the region.

At the same time, the American side believes that the creation of a military alliance between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the future is a rather large threat to its national interests.

Moscow’s movement towards Beijing is accelerating the growth of China’s military power and geopolitical weight.

Despite the fact that Russia is on the sidelines of the sensitive topics that determine the military-political situation in the APR, in order to confirm its status as an influential world power, Moscow periodically takes measures in the field of regional security.

The Kremlin regularly conducts military exercises with the countries of the region and is building up its military presence in the Kuril Islands, creating additional tension in the Asia-Pacific region. The Russian Federation has deployed anti-ship missile systems "Bal" and "Bastion" on the South Kuril Islands, which are not only defensive but also offensive weapons (equipped with Onyx supersonic missiles capable of hitting sea and ground targets within a radius of 600 km).

IV. Many countries in the region view the US military presence as a stabilizing factor and a guarantee of their security. Recently, however, they have shown growing concern that peace in the region is not improving and that the environment is more unpredictable. In this regard, the US allies, unsure of the effectiveness of the Pentagon’s "guarantees" against the background of US President Trump’s statements, are seeking to strengthen their own military potential.

Intensive militarization in this context is another negative trend in the military-political situation in the APR. Defense spending in some countries in the region is growing faster than their GDP is increasing.

According to the annual report of the British analytical center "Janes", the top 10 countries with the largest military budgets from the Asia-Pacific region are: the USA, China, Russia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia. Even without taking into account the United States, the APR countries in aggregate in 2019 spent more than US$400 billion on military needs.

In general, according to experts, the preservation of prerequisites for an aggravation of the military-political situation in the APR, and the high probability of its escalation is fraught with unpredictable consequences. Prospects for further developments will depend on the readiness of US President-elect Joe Biden and President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping to seek common ground and mutually beneficial cooperation.

However, the persistence of the existing strategic contradictions between the US and the PRC in the APR and regular "adjustments" in the foreign policy of the countries of the region may become an impetus for further destabilization of the situation.