Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The expert community is actively commenting on the results of a survey of Afghans conducted by the Institute for War and Peace Studies on the peace process and the political future of Afghanistan.
The Institute for War and Peace Studies is a non-profit think tank based in Kabul specializing in strategic, defense and military research, peacebuilding and conflict resolution in Afghanistan.
As noted by the Military Times, more than 8,600 Afghan citizens (men - 58%, women - 42%) from all 34 provinces of the country took part in a sociological study conducted in September - October 2020. The respondents were represented by residents of both urban areas (47%), mainly controlled by the government, and rural (53%) areas, mainly under the influence of Taliban.
Commenting on the survey results, experts highlight the following key points.
1) Afghans’ optimism regarding the ongoing intra-Afghan negotiations has significantly decreased. If in August 2020, 86% of residents believed that the inter-Afghan dialogue would lead to the end of the war, but today only 57% believe in a successful outcome of the peace process. Experts attribute this circumstance to the fact that the launch of the intra-Afghan dialogue did not lead to a decrease in violence in the country.
In this regard, about 76% of respondents believe that a ceasefire should be the top priority of Afghanistan government in peace negotiations. At the same time, only 58.5% of Afghans say that the government represents their interests in negotiations.
2) The relative majority of the population is in favor of the formation of a provisional government. 52% support the creation of a transitional government or early elections. At the same time, 25.5% of Afghans voted for an equal distribution of power.
3) The priority for the Afghans remains the preservation of the republican system. Only 6% of the population supports the restoration of the emirate (Taliban power), while 25% support the preservation of the democratic system. In addition, 78% of respondents want to call the leader of the country - the president, and 6.8% - the supreme emir.
Regarding future reforms, in particular in the field of security, 64% of IRA residents do not want not only fundamental changes in the current system, but also the leading role of the Taliban in this process.
In general, experts note the negative impact of the escalation of violence by the Taliban on the opinion of Afghans regarding the peace process and the attractiveness of the Taliban as the future power in Afghanistan.