Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — As of 3 July 2025, the US dollar rebounded to 12,570 Uzbek soums. Over the past week, the soum depreciated by 0.56%, marking the first weekly decline in nearly two months for Uzbekistan’s national currency. In contrast, the previous week saw the soum strengthen by 0.90% against the USD, following gains of 0.21% and 1.34% in the two weeks prior.

This current pullback is likely a correction, which is a natural development after a prolonged period of currency appreciation. Several factors continue to support the soum, including Uzbekistan’s foreign trade balance, a weaker US dollar, and strong backing from gold-based assets.

International rating agency Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Uzbekistan’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating from “BB-” to “BB”, with a stable outlook. According to analysts, this upgrade reflects the acceleration of reforms and favorable medium-term economic growth prospects, which Fitch believes will help reduce macroeconomic risks and strengthen the country’s key credit fundamentals.

Among the top reforms noted by Fitch are efforts to build trust in monetary policy, advance privatization, and increase transparency in public institutions. The agency also highlighted energy tariff liberalization and subsidy reform, which contributed to more sustainable fiscal dynamics in 2024. However, Fitch emphasized that despite this progress, Uzbekistan’s institutional indicators still lag behind those of countries with similar ratings.

The country’s economic strengths include a low public debt level, strong gold and foreign exchange reserves, solid fiscal buffers, and growth potential. On the other hand, key vulnerabilities remain: dependence on commodity exports—especially gold—along with persistent inflation, high dollarization, and a relatively low GDP per capita.

Earlier this year, in May, S&P Global affirmed Uzbekistan’s rating at “BB-” and, for the first time, upgraded its outlook from “stable” to “positive.” In June, Moody’s also improved its outlook from “stable” to “positive”, maintaining the rating at “Ba3”, which is equivalent to “BB-” on Fitch’s scale.

In the coming week, the USD/soum exchange rate is expected to move within the range of 12,460 to 12,700 soums.

Anna Bodrova, Analyst at Alpari