Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In December 2019, the increase in the average level of consumer prices and tariffs in Uzbekistan made up 1.7%, the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan.

In general, in January-December 2019, goods and services in the consumer market on average went up by 15.2%.

In December 2018, on average per month, prices for goods and services increased by 2.1%. In general, in 2018, the average increase in prices and tariffs in the consumer market amounted to 14.3%.

According to calculations, the average monthly increase in the composite consumer price index for January-December 2019 amounted to 1.2%. With this in mind, the growth of the composite indicator in December 2019 was 0.5 points higher than the average monthly indicator for January-December 2019.

The periods of peak values of monthly growth and price reduction during 2019 fell on August (an increase of 2.9%) and June (a decrease of 0.5%). Thus, the growth of the consolidated CPI in December this year was fixed 1.2 points below the maximum and 2.2 points above the minimum for the month during the year under review.

A monthly comparison of the short-term composite consumer price index for the 12 months of 2019 and 2018 revealed that the maximum gap in indicators also fell in August (2.9% in 2019 against 0.3% in 2018). In December, the difference was 0.4 points (1.7% in December 2019 compared to 2.1% in December 2018).

A comparison of the combined CPI by December of the previous year for the months of 2019 and 2018 showed that the minimum difference was recorded in April (5.3% versus 5.8%, or 0.5 points), and the most significant deviation was noted in August (8,2% versus 6.2%, or 2.0 points). In December, the gap between the indicators was 0.9 points (15.2% versus 14.3%).

The annual consolidated CPI in December 2019, compared with the same indicator of the previous month, decreased by 0.4 points (from 15.6% to 15.2%), while the maximum value of this indicator during 2019 was noted in August ( 16.5%), and the minimum - in January (13.0%).

Despite the fact that the trend line of the change in the consolidated CPI in annual terms for 2018-2019 is directed towards a decrease, discretely for 2019 the general trend was directed towards an increase in this indicator. So, if at the beginning of 2019 the CPI in annual terms was 13.0%, then by the end of the year it reached 15.2%. At the same time, the peak values of the CPI in annual terms over the past two years were in January 2018 and 2019 (20.1% and 13.0%, respectively). With regard to price changes in the context of enlarged groups, as in the last month, the leadership in price and tariff growth belongs to food products, which rose 3.3% in the last month of the year, while non-food products added only 0 , 5%, and services - 0.3%.

In general, for 2019, food products became more expensive by 18.6%. Non-food products during this period rose by 10.9%, services - by 15.2%.

As already noted, the maximum increase in prices for goods and services for the month during 2019 was recorded in August (by 2.9%). The information below allows us to conclude that this situation is largely associated with an increase in tariffs for services to the population (by 5.6%). Against this background, the growth rate of prices for goods in August was also at a relatively high level (monthly increase in food products amounted to 2.3%, non-food products - 2.1%). The graph below also illustrates that the achievement of the minimum CPI in June 2019 is due to a decrease in the average level of food prices (by 1.8% per month) and a relatively low increase in prices for non-food products and services (by 0.6 % and 0.7%).

As for the long-term consolidated CPI calculated by December 2017, in December of the current year, for food products it amounted to 36.3%, non-food products - 24.7%, services - 33.4%. The consolidated indicator for this period increased by 31.6%.

According to the calculation results, the average monthly increase in the consumer price index from January 2018 to December 2019 for food products made up 1.4%, non-food products - 0.9%, services - 1.2%.

Assessment of the contribution of price changes taking into account the specific gravity of each enlarged group showed that in December 2019, as in the previous two months, the influence of price changes on food products prevailed.

In the last month of 2019, food products accounted for 85.7%, non-food products - 10.1% and services - 4.2% of the total impact.

As for the structure of the consolidated CPI by December of the previous year, during 2019, the influence of the increase in food prices on the growth of the composite consumer price index by December 2018 was predominant in all months, excluding July and August. In these months, the ratio of the contribution of food and non-food products was either in equal proportions (July), or with a slight advantage in the direction of food products (August).

In December, the impact of rising prices for non-food products and tariffs for services on the growth of the consolidated CPI was 3.8 pp and 3.3 percentage points, which is significantly lower than the corresponding indicator for food products (by 4.3 and 4.8 points, respectively).

In specific indicators, the influence of food products in December 2019 accounted for 53.4%, non-food products - 24.9%, services - 21.7%.

In the structure of the consolidated CPI by December of the previous year, both in December 2019 and in December 2018, the influence of price changes on food prevails. Thus, in December 2019, this group of goods accounted for 53.4%, and in December 2018 it amounted to 44.7% (a gap of 8.7 points). Against this background, the specific impact indicators of non-food goods and services in December 2019 were lower than in December 2018 (24.9% versus 30.8% and 21.7% versus 24.5%).

Over the last month of 2019, food products rose by 3.3%, or 0.3 points more than the same period last month, which increased the consolidated CPI by 1.4 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2019, food prices have increased on average by 18.6%, with the average monthly CPI growth in the group by 1.4%. Thus, the price increase for goods of this group in December 2019 was 1.9 points higher than the average monthly increase for January-December 2019.

Due to seasonal changes in prices for such food products as fruits and vegetables and dairy products, eggs, etc., the dynamics of monthly short-term CPI for food products during the year has traditionally been subject to significant fluctuations more than other groups.

A comparison of the CPI for food products for each month of 2019 and 2018 showed that the most significant gaps in the indicators were recorded in August (2.3% versus 0.3%) and September (1.4% versus 3.3%).

As for the CPI for food products in December 2019 and 2018, with relatively close indicators (3.3% and 3.2%), for certain groups of goods their deviation was more significant.

The trend of food price changes relative to December of the previous year over the past two years has a similar trend.

However, as it is visually displayed in the above chart, the CPI for food products by December of the previous year from February to November 2019 was monthly higher than in the corresponding months of 2018. At the same time, this circumstance was most pronounced in August (6.9% versus 2.6%, or 4.3 points). In December, the gap in performance was 3.7 points (18.6% versus 14.9%). Despite the fact that the difference in the value of the annual CPI for food products in January 2019 and 2018 was maximum (14.1% versus 26.8%, or -12.7 points), by September this difference had practically disappeared (equal values of the index ) Starting from October, the deviation began to increase in excess of the indicator for 2019 (a difference of 0.6 points in October, 1.1 points in November and 3.7 points in December). At the same time, the trend line for 2019 is directed towards the growth of indicators, and for 2018 - their decline.

Bakery products (including cereals and legumes) in December 2019 increased by 1.7%, in general, for the year, price increases was 24.8%.

Of the bakery products (including cereals and legumes), in December, prices for buckwheat rose most significantly - by 4.4%, bread from wheat flour of the first grade - by 3.1%, mung - by 2.4%, wheat flour - by 2.2% Along with this, rice has become cheaper by 1.5%.

In general, in 2019, bread from 1st grade flour became 1.4 times more expensive, higher grade 1.3 times more expensive, wheat flour 1.3 times more expensive, and rice 5.8% more expensive. In 2018, the price increase for these products was higher (excluding flour).

In December 2019, meat, poultry and fish rose by an average of 0.9%. For December 2019, prices for poultry meat (except for chicken legs) added 1.7%, chicken drumstick and chicken legs - 1.6%, mutton - 1.1%, beef (except boneless meat) - 0.6 %, boneless beef - by 0.4%. Live and chilled fish became 1.4% more expensive.

In general, in January-December 2019, meat, poultry and fish on average went up by 23.4%, and this is 1.7 points more than in the same period last year.

Since the beginning of 2019, the price of beef (except boneless meat) has increased by 26.6%, lamb - by 25.3%, boneless beef - by 22.5%, live and chilled fish - by 17.9%, poultry meat ( except for legs) - by 16.6%, chicken drumstick and legs - by 12.6%.

In December 2019, milk and dairy products on average became more expensive by 1.8%, which is 0.4 points lower than in the corresponding month of last year.

Milk in the last month of 2019 has risen in price by 3.3%, cream - by 2.1%, kefir, yogurt and similar products - by 1.8%, cottage cheese - by 1.7%, hard cheese - by 1.5% , processed and sausage cheeses - by 1.3%.

Since the beginning of 2019, dairy products have added 18.1% in price, and this is 5.2 points higher than in 2018.

During 2019, fresh milk rose in price by 25.0%, kefir, yogurt and similar products - by 23.4%, cream - by 21.2%, cottage cheese - by 17.9%, hard cheese - by 13.6% , processed and sausage cheeses - by 11.9%.

The peak price growth for a month for eggs during 2019 was recorded in November (12.5%), and over the last month of the year they became more expensive by another 7.0%. In general, for 2019 this type of product went up by 31.8%.

Over the past month, fruits and vegetables grew by 13.7%. Seasonal fluctuations in the prices of goods of this group during 2019 were most clearly reflected in short-term price indices. Thus, the saturation of the market with fruit and vegetable products of the new crop led to the fact that the price indices for the group from June to September were below 100.0%, while from January to May, as well as in the last three months of the year, there was a tendency for rising prices for goods this group.

Fresh cucumbers and tomatoes more expensive than others in December 2019 (2.1 times and 1.6 times respectively). At the same time, the price level for them remained below December 2018 by 16.3% and 13.6%. In relation to the end of last year, the most pronounced increase was in prices for garlic (2.7 times), onions (1.6 times) and grapes (1.5 times), and the cucumbers tomatoes.

Sugar, tea and other food products have become more expensive by 0.8% per month. Sugar went up by 0.2%, coffee, tea and confectionery products - by an average of 0.9%, other food products (salt, yeast, etc.) - by 1.0%. At the same time, the general trend of change for this group of goods during 2019 was directed upward (monthly prices increased in the range from 0.1% to 1.9%).

In December 2019 and 2018, the gap in consumer price indices for sugar, tea and other food products compared to December of the previous year was significant (11.4% versus 2.6%). In general, in 2019 sugar became more expensive by 16.4%, confectionery products - by 12.0%, coffee and tea - by 5.7%, other food products - by 6.4%.

Oil and fat products in December 2019 rose less pronounced than at the end of 2018 (0.4% versus 2.0%). Since the beginning of 2019, the goods of this group on average have become more expensive by 7.5%, and in 2018 - by 8.7%.

In December 2019, butter rose in price by 0.9%, margarine - by 0.5%, sunflower oil - by 0.4%, cottonseed oil - by 0.2%.

In January-December 2019, butter became more expensive by 18.4%, margarine - by 12.6%, sunflower oil - by 5.7%, cottonseed oil - by 4.1%.

Prices in public catering grew monthly in the range from 0.7 to 3.4%, including in December - by 1.5%. In 2019, meals outside the home became more expensive by 23.1%. Since the beginning of 2019, non-alcoholic beverages have risen in price by 14.1% (including in December - by 0.9%), alcoholic beverages - by 15.7% (in December - by 0.5%).

An analysis of the contribution of the main groups of food products to the growth of the consolidated CPI for December 2019 revealed the following: the most significant inflationary effect was exerted by the seasonal increase in prices for fruits and vegetables (1.11 percentage points).

Further, in descending order, there are bakery products (0.13 pp). Closing the top three in terms of the influence of meat, poultry and fish (0.09 percentage points).

In the structure of the contribution of price changes for the main groups of food products to the growth of the consolidated CPI as a whole for 2019, the most significant share falls on meat, poultry and fish (2.49 percentage points out of 8.1 percentage points, or 30.7 % of the total impact of food products). This is followed by bread products (2.00 percentage points, or 24.6%), fruits and vegetables (1.17 percentage points, or 14.4%). The increase in prices for dairy products, as well as sugar, tea and other food products added 1.22 percentage points to the consolidated CPI for the year due to the increase in the cost of public catering, the consolidated indicator became even 0.43 percentage points higher. The contribution of price changes in other groups of food products ranges from 0.05 percentage points up to 0.32 pp.

In December 2019, non-food products on average became more expensive by 0.5%. In 2019, prices for goods of this group increased on average by 10.9%.

According to the calculation results, the average monthly increase in the CPI for non-food products in January-December 2019 reached 0.9%. Thus, the increase in prices for goods of this group for the last month of 2019 was 0.4 points lower than the average monthly value for January-December.

A comparison of the short-term CPI for non-food products in dynamics for January-December 2019 and 2018 showed the following. Thus, the maximum difference in the CPI value for this group of goods in the compared periods of two years was 1.8 points and was observed in January and August. In the same months, peak values of growth in prices for non-food products were recorded: in August 2019 (by 2.1%), in January 2018 (by 2.3%). As noted above, in December 2019 and 2018, the differentiation in indicators was 1.6 points.

The general trend of price changes for non-food products relative to December of the previous year over the past two years is aimed at increasing, while the largest gap in indicators was noted in July (8.5% in 2018 compared to 5.7% in 2019, or 2, 8 points). In the following months, the values of price indices approached, while this was most pronounced in October (a gap of 0.2 points). Starting from November, the deviation of the indicators began to increase again (0.7 points in November and 1.6 in December).

The dynamics of the CPI for non-food products in annual terms during 2019 was relatively stable (the indicator ranged from 9.5% - 12.2%). In contrast, last year, after slight fluctuations from January to August in the range of 17.7% - 19.5%, there was a tendency to a more significant decrease to 12.5%.

As for the detailed analysis of the CPI for non-food products, among the groups with the largest share in the structure of the set of goods and services for calculating the combined CPI in December 2019, jewelry (by 1.0%), clothes and shoes (by 0, 7%), medicines and household textiles (0.6% each), building materials, personal hygiene products, basic household goods and electrical appliances (0.4% each). Among other groups of goods, a more significant increase in prices was recorded for matches (1.6%), threads (1.4%), carpets and rugs (0.9%), communications (0.7%), kitchen utensils and appliances , washing and cleaning products (0.6% each), haberdashery, watches, computers and peripheral equipment (0.5% each).

Taking into account the share of the main groups of non-food products in the structure of the set of goods and services for calculating the consolidated CPI, the most significant contribution to its growth in December was made by the increase in prices for clothes and shoes (0.07 percentage points, which is about 38.9% of the overall impact of non-food items). The contribution range of other groups is in the range of 0.01-0.02 percentage points So, due to rising prices for construction materials and medicines, the consolidated CPI for the month increased by 0.04 percentage points in total. (contribution of 0.02 percentage points), an increase in prices for fabrics, yarn, household textiles, jewelry, furniture, carpets and rugs, basic household goods and electrical appliances, detergents and cleaning products, cultural goods, communications, as well as for personal care products, the consolidated CPI increased by another 0.07 percentage points

The most significant contribution to the growth of the consolidated CPI as compared to December 2018 among the main groups of non-food products was made by price changes for clothes and shoes (1.05 percentage points or 27.7% of the total influence of non-food products), fuel for cars and household fuel ( 0.60 percentage points or 15.8%), as well as for building materials (0.31 percentage points or 8.2%).

The increase in prices for basic household goods and electrical appliances added 0.24 percentage points to the consolidated CPI (6.3% of the influence of non-food products), detergents and cleaning products - 0.22 percentage points (5.8%), medicines, personal hygiene products, fabrics, yarn and household textiles - 0.20 percentage points each (5.3% each), cultural goods and communications, as well as furniture, carpets and rugs - 0.14 percentage points each (3.7%).

In December 2019, the increase in tariffs for paid services to the population for the month amounted to 0.3%. In 2019, tariffs in the field of paid services to the population on average increased by 15.2%.

According to the calculation results, the average monthly increase in the CPI for paid services to the population in January-December 2019 amounted to 1.2%.

The dynamics of tariff changes during January-December 2019 and 2018 is characterized by a steady upward trend (short-term CPIs in the group were monthly above 100.0%). At the same time, during 2019, the maximum monthly tariff growth was observed in August (5.6%), and in 2018 - in April (2.7%), May (2.1%) and November (3.3%) , which is mainly due to the introduction of higher tariffs on the main types of housing and communal services.

Basic household goods and electrical appliances became more expensive this year by 13.4%, tobacco products - 12.8%, cultural goods - 12.7%, communications - 12.5%, personal hygiene products - 12.0 %, fabrics and yarn - by 11.6%, clothes - by 10.4%, shoes - by 10.3%.

The CPI for paid services to the population relative to December of the previous year during January-July 2018 was monthly higher than in the same period in 2019. The increase in utility tariffs in August 2019 was a turning point, because of which the position of the indicator in 2019 began to lead. This continued until November, and in December the CPI for paid services again took the leading place in 2018. Such a change is associated with a higher increase in tariffs in the last month of last year (by 1.3% per month in December 2018 against 0.3% in December 2019).

As for the annual expression of the CPI for paid services to the population, in the compared periods of the last two years this indicator was monthly higher in 2019, with the exception of May (12.5% in 2019 against 13.7% in 2018) and December (respectively 15.2% versus 15.8%).

With an average increase in tariffs for services in December 2019 by 0.3%, household services (1.0%), sports and healthcare services (0.5% each), cultural institutions (0.4%) rose in price above this value %). The growth of tariffs for other groups of services for the month did not exceed the average group value, and the cost of housing and communal services, services of preschool educational institutions remained at the level of the previous month. Below is the dynamics of the CPI for certain groups of paid services to the population for 2019.

As for the change in tariffs for paid services to the population as a whole over the year, of the main groups, their most notable growth was registered for education services (22.0%), preschool educational institutions funded from the state budget (20.5%), services domestic nature (18.8%), housing and communal services (17.8%), sports services (13.3%), recreation (13.2%). Passenger transport services became more expensive during this period by 12.9%, medical services - by 11.7%, cultural institutions - by 7.7%, communications - by 5.2%.

Against the background of a general increase in tariffs for household services in 2019 by 18.8%, some of their types have risen in price more significantly. Among them are bath and shower services, car washing, repair services for dwellings, household appliances and devices, and vehicles.

In 2019, in the field of housing and communal services, tariffs for cold water supply and sewage, electricity, network and liquefied gas increased significantly more than others. Less pronounced increased charges for hot water and heating.

Electric city transport services are leading in the growth of tariffs in the field of passenger transportation. Air travel and train travel have become less expensive.

Assessing the contribution of tariff changes of the main service groups to the growth of the consolidated CPI for the last month of 2019, we can say that it was the most significant in the group of consumer services (0.03 percentage points).

0.01 p.p. passenger transport and medical services were added to the composite indicator. Due to the increase in the cost of services in the field of culture, education, sports and recreation, the consolidated CPI for the month increased by another 0.01 percentage points.

Housing and utilities services (1.08 percentage points) continue to hold leadership in terms of the impact on the growth of the consolidated CPI by December 2018.

The increase in tariffs for household services added an additional 0.66 percentage points to the consolidated indicator, passenger transport and communication services - 0.56 percentage points, education services - 0.39 percentage points, medical services - 0.24 percentage points .p., pre-school education services - 0.21 percentage points.