Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In October 2023, the consolidated CPI for the month in Uzbekistan amounted to 101.0%, by December 2022 – 106.2%. In annual terms (as of October of the previous year), the consolidated CPI was recorded at 109.0%, the Statistics Agency said.

The average monthly increase in the CPI for January-October 2023 reached 0.6%. This is 0.3 points less than in the same period last year, and 0.1 points lower than in January-October 2021.

In October 2023, the CPI for goods for the month was 101.1%. Since the beginning of this year, this figure has reached 106.5%. In annual terms, the CPI for goods was at 109.4%.

The short-term CPI for services in October 2023 was 100.7%. By December 2022, the CPI reached 105.5%, and by October 2022 – 107.5%.

The short-term CPI for food products in October of this year amounted to 101.3%, non-food products – 101.0%, paid services – 100.7%. By December last year, the CPI for food products was fixed at 106.9%, non-food products – 105.9%, paid services – 105.5%. The CPI in annual terms for food and non-food products was at the level of 110.9% and 107.7%, for services it reached 107.5%.

Without taking into account changes in prices for fruits and vegetables, the short-term consolidated CPI for October 2023 amounted to 100.9% (versus 101.0% taking into account these changes). By the level of December 2022, this indicator was fixed at 106.4%, by October 2022 – 108.5%.

The contribution of price changes for food products to the growth of the short-term consolidated CPI for October 2023 accounted for 51.0%, non-food products – 32.7%, services – 16.3% of the total contribution of observed goods and services.

According to calculations, food products accounted for about 47.2% of the total contribution of the three main groups to the growth of the consolidated CPI by December 2022 (versus 51.6% a year earlier). The contribution of price changes for services still remains the smallest among the three main groups - its share was 20.2%. The increase in the consolidated CPI in annual terms is more than half associated with rising prices for food products (51.4%).

In October 2023, the range of short-term CPI by section was from 98.0% (Section VIII. Information and Communication) to 102.7% (Section XI. Restaurants and Hospitality Services).

With the exception of sections II. “Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products” and VII “Transport”, the CPI in all sections for October 2023 was lower than the same indicator last year. By December of the previous year, the CPI below the 100.0% mark was recorded in Section VIII “Information and Communication”.

The lowest annual CPI in October 2023 was recorded for goods and services in the field of information and communications (98.5%), the highest – for the services of restaurants and hotels (121.7%).

The range of fluctuations in the short-term CPI for October 2023 by group of section I “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” ranged from 98.5% to 106.5%. The short-term CPI below 100.0% for the month was recorded in the groups "Vegetables, tubers and legumes" (98.5%), "Oils and fats" (99.6%), "Fish and other seafood" (99.5%). The end of the harvest season of the main types of fruits led to the expected increase in prices in the Fruit and Nuts group. Thus, the shortterm CPI for October 2023 for the Fruit and Nuts group reached 106.5%. The CPI in the other groups of the section for the month was significantly lower and did not exceed 101.2%.

The average price level for oil and fat and vegetable products in October of this year still remained lower than at the end of 2022. The CPI for the group “Oils and fats” for October 2023 was 91.5%, for the group “Vegetables, tubers, fruits and legumes” it reached 91.3%. Significantly lower than in January-October 2022 was the CPI value for cereals and cereals (109.7% vs. 127.9%), as well as for sugar, confectionery and desserts (107.6% vs. 125.0%). Along with this, the January-October 2023 CPI value for fruits and nuts was higher than in previous years.

The CPI in annual terms for October 2023 was significantly lower than the same indicator for October 2022 in the groups “Cereals and cereal products” (112.6% versus 131.4%), “Oils and fats” (90.0% versus 114.6%) and “Sugar, confectionery and desserts (107.3% versus 130.6%). Among Section I groups, the average price level in the Oils and Fats group remained lower than in October last year.

The saturation of the market with the products of the new harvest allowed prices for such types of products as carrots, cabbage, pumpkin, beets, and onions to decrease in October 2023. Along with this, vegetables such as tomatoes, eggplants, cucumbers, bell peppers, etc. have become more expensive.

Eggplants and bell peppers hold the lead in price reduction both since the beginning of this year and in relation to October last year.

The limiting factor for the short-term CPI in October of this year was the decline in prices for vegetables, tubers and legumes, oils and fats (total contribution -0.08 percentage points), and the most significant inflationary contribution was recorded from the seasonal increase in prices for fruits and nuts (+ 0.24 p.p.). The main downward impact on the CPI for January-October 2023 was the decrease in prices in the groups of vegetables, tubers and legumes, as well as oils and fats (-0.62 percentage points). Among the groups with the greatest influence on growth were meat products, grain crops and cereal products, fruits and nuts (+2.38 p.p.). The most significant contribution to the increase in the annual consolidated CPI was made by changes in prices for grain crops and cereal products, meat products (+2.13 p.p.), and a decrease in prices for oils and fats (-0.29 p.p.).

In October of this year, fluctuations in the short-term CPI in section II. “Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products” ranged from 100.3% (cigarettes) to 101.3% (vodka). The rise in prices for raw materials and, as a consequence, the rise in prices of products produced by domestic manufacturers manifested themselves in an increase in consumer prices for goods in section II. Overall, for ten months, the CPI for alcohol and tobacco products ranged from 106.6% (wine) to 110.5% (cigarettes).

The range of short-term CPI in October of this year in section III. “Clothing and footwear” ranged from 99.8% (men's T-shirts) to 106.3% (dry cleaning). Price fluctuations are caused by a number of factors, including changes in seasonal demand for certain types of clothing and footwear, as well as an increase in the consumption of certain types of services (for example, dry cleaning services, etc.).

In October of this year, a decision of the local government approved an increase in tariffs for cold water supply and sewerage services in the Andijan region (by an average of 93.8%). Taking into account the share of the specified region in the structure of total consumer expenditures of the population, the CPI for cold water supply and sewerage on average in the republic for the month amounted to 107.8%. The range of fluctuations in short-term CPI for the main types of materials for maintenance and repair of housing ranged from 99.5% (cement) to 100.9% (metal pipes, bends, bends, couplings).

Range of fluctuations in the short-term CPI for goods included in section VI. “Healthcare” in October of this year ranged from 100.3% (vitamins) to 101.4% (dressing materials, auxiliary products for vision, diagnostic products and antihistamines).

The CPI for services in the field of information technology for October 2023 was fixed at below 100.0%, which is due to a revision of the tariff-setting characteristics of a number of observed tariff plans, and, as a result, a reduction in the cost of a unit of services provided. At the same time, the average CPI for mobile communication services in the republic was 95.3% per month.

During October 2023, price reductions in the range of 0.3-0.8% were noted for certain types of paper and white goods. The most significant CPI value was recorded for zoo services (110.0%), which is associated with an increase in prices for entrance tickets to the zoo in Kashkadarya region.

The beginning of a new academic year is traditionally accompanied by an increase in demand for additional education services, and as a result, an increase in prices for them. Thus, the CPI for tutoring services for the month reached 102.3%, educational courses – 101.0%. Tuition fees in private universities increased by 1.5% on average across the republic; in public universities they remained at the level of last month.

In October of this year, ready-made food in cafes rose in price in all regions of the country in the range of 0.5-3.9%, in canteens - in the range of 1.1-4.6%, fast food establishments - in the range of 0.7-4.9%. An increase in prices for hotel services was recorded only in two regions (Jizzakh region and Tashkent city), while prices for services at recreation centers remained at the level of September of this year.

Since 2020, the situation in the market of observed insurance services has maintained price stability. Among financial services, minor price changes in October of this year were noted for the services of banking institutions (100.8%), as well as for the transfer of funds through banks (100.6%).

In October of this year, the value of short-term CPI for goods included in the group “Other devices, products and personal goods” did not exceed 100.9%. Among other services, in October of this year, an increase in prices was recorded only in two regions for funeral services, which on average in the republic increased in price by 0.2%, including in the Republic of Karakalpakstan - by 1.8%, in Khorezm region - by 1.2%.

The most significant contribution to the increase in the short-term composite indicator in October 2023 was made by price changes for food and non-alcoholic drinks, which accounted for over 45% of the total impact. The moderating effect was exerted by the decline in prices in the “Information and Communication” section (-0.06 p.p.).

Just over 40% of the increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2022 is provided by price changes for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Their contribution reached 2.59 p.p. with a total increase of 6.23 p.p. Price changes in the “Transport” and “Healthcare” sections also made a significant contribution. In total, they ensured an increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2022 by 1.41 p.p., or 22.6%of the total contribution. The restraining factor was the decline in prices in the “Information and Communication” section, as a result of which the consolidated CPI decreased by 0.07 p.p.

About 46.4% of the total increase in the consolidated CPI by October 2022 is due to price changes for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Their contribution amounted to 4.17 p.p. The contribution of rising prices in the transport sector accounted for 12.5%, healthcare – 8.4% of the total impact. As in the case of the CPI for January-October of the current year, the downward factor for the annual CPI was the decrease in prices for communication services, which was reflected in a decrease in the indicator by 0.05 p.p.