How does a stable power supply affect the production process of enterprises?
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IPMI) assessed sectoral and macroeconomic effects with an increase in the level of stability and volumes of electricity supply to small enterprises in the manufacturing industry of Uzbekistan.
The results of calculations of direct sectoral effects showed that even a slight increase (by 1.6-2.2%) in electricity consumption will lead to an increase in the output of textile products - by 1.14-1.42%, food products - by 1.42- 1.49%, building materials - by 0.95-1.16%, electrical products - by 1.37-1.51%.
The assessment of the accumulated effects for the studied sectors and for the economy as a whole, obtained using the Input-Output method, will positively affect the dynamics of GDP growth, increasing it by 0.41 p.p., taxes - 0.52 p.p., export volumes - up to 146 million dollars, employment - up to 14-15 thousand people.
The obtained estimates also take into account the indirect effects that arise in the process of increasing the output of the products of the industries considered above. Thus, the increase in employment in the textile industry in 2023. can lead to an increase in employment in agriculture - by 861 units, trade - by 71 units, in the electric power industry - by 41 units. and other areas, but in general for the economy, the indirect effect can be - 1080 units.
The above estimates are confirmed at the macroeconomic level by the results of an express survey of fifty small businesses.
It showed that, in the case of an increase in the stability of the supply and volume of electricity, almost all enterprises see positive prospects for the development of their industries.
With the improvement in the stability of energy supply, the majority of enterprises (64%) noted the possibility of increasing production volumes - from 10% to 20%.
In the case of providing additional volumes of consumption, 72% of the total number of surveyed enterprises expressed their readiness to increase production volumes by at least 20%.
The tasks of attracting existing reserves and new sources of economic growth determine the relevance of continuing pending reforms in the energy sector and taking additional measures to develop energy capacities, which involves expanding infrastructure to meet rapidly growing demand, including through a fair tariff reform and a transparent process of attracting private investment.
IPMI will continue research in this direction, including by expanding the scope of ongoing surveys of small and medium-sized enterprises in industry and other sectors of the economy.