Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In August 2018, the average level of prices for goods and services in Uzbekistan rose by 0.3% (January - inflation 2.7%, February - 1.1%, March - 1.1%, April - 0.9%, May - 0.8%, June and July - deflation 0.4% and 0.3%). The inflation rate for January-August 2018 year was 6.2%, the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan said.

The most noticeable prices in the consumer market rose in January (2.7%). In June and July, a significant increase in the supply of agricultural products in the domestic market has made a decisive contribution both to the reduction of the average price level on food, and the general level of inflation.

Price trends in August 2018 can be described as “uniform growth in prices for goods and services”. So, the average goods for the month they added 0.3 % in price and services - 0.4%.

Analysis of inflation in annual terms (in the current month in relation to the corresponding month of the previous year) also showed that the peak of inflationary pressure on the economy came in January of this year (20.1%), and in subsequent months it acquired a tendency to a slowdown.

Among the key factors, which influenced the inflation trends in January-August 2018, were:

• price trends for fruit and vegetable products, as well as dairy products, eggs and poultry meat associated with seasonal and climatic aspects;
• saturation of the market with imported products (e.g. sugar, vegetable oil);
• the growth of costs in the cattle, including due to the rise in the cost of the feed base with a significant demand of the population for meat products;
• increase in rice prices due to a decrease in supply in the consumer market and the expectation of producers and sellers regarding the possibility of an upcoming price increase in connection with the arid period and the reduction of acreage;
• strengthening of the national currency and foreign trade factor contributed significantly to curbing inflation and, first of all, with regard to imported goods, as well as certain services (for example, air passenger transport);
• increase in prices for building materials associated with the growth of costs of domestic producers, significantly increased inflationary pressure on the economy and led to an increase in inflation of about 0.8% (or 12.9% of the total growth for 8 months of this year);
• growth of administratively-regulated tariffs in the communal sphere had a direct impact on the level of inflation in the country, providing an increase of 0.8%, as well as indirect - by increasing the costs of producers of goods and services;
• change in the market in the fuel and lubricants market caused the increase in prices for methane and propane sold to the population through the network of gas filling compressor stations (CNGS) and led to an increase in inflation of another 0.4%;
• increase in the size of the minimum wage had a certain effect on the increase in inflation. This impact was of a direct nature (due to the growth of tariffs that depend from its size, - legal services, certain types of banking services, veterinary services, etc.), and indirect (by stimulating consumer demand and additional cash infusion in the economy);
• increase in retail prices for cars produced by GM Uzbekistan on average by 7.7% added 0.05% to the overall inflation rate in the country;
• increase in excise tax rates on alcohol and tobacco products from 1 January 2018, and also the enactment from 1 June 2018 for manufacturers of these goods of additional fees for development of physical culture and sports, stipulated by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan of March 5, 2018 No. PP-3583 "On the organization of activities of the Ministry of Physical Culture and Sports of the Republic of Uzbekistan", reflected in the growth of prices on alcoholic products by an average of 12.5%, tobacco products - by 15.2% (impact - 0.2 pp.)

As noted above, food prices averaged 0.3% on average over the month, which ensured consumer price index (CPI) growth of 0.1 p.p. Excluding fruits and vegetables, the increase in prices for food products for the period since the beginning of the year amounted to 7.5%, and in August compared to July of this year - 0.6%.

Of the main food products, the most noticeable price increase for the month was registered for vegetables, eggs, rice and meat products. A restraining factor that allowed to lower the overall level of food prices somewhat was the decline in prices for fruits, melons, potatoes and sugar.

Relative to the end of last year, the leadership in the growth of prices belongs to carrots, to decrease of prices - to cucumbers.

The level of average prices for other types of food products has not changed significantly. Analysis of average consumer prices for basic food products in the regional context showed that more expensive than in other regions, the purchase of kilograms of beef costs consumers in Tashkent, mutton - in Syrdarya region.

The lowest average price for meat is registered in the Republic of Karakalpakstan. The gap between the highest and lowest average price of a kilogram of flour is 1.5 times, potatoes 1.4 times, lamb - 1.4 times, beef - 1.2 times, poultry – 1.2 times, a dozen eggs - 1.2 times, kilograms of sugar - 1.1 times.

The increase in prices for non-food products by 0.3% led to an increase in the consolidated CPI by 0.1 percentage points. The level of prices for goods of this group in August 2018 was formed under the influence of rising prices for cars, clothing, footwear, stationery, construction materials and lower prices for fuel for cars (propane).

The increase in retail prices for cars manufactured by GM Uzbekistan since August of 2018, on average by 7.7%, added an additional 0.05 pp to the inflation rate for the month.

Leadership in the level of influence on the price increase in this group of goods for 8 months of 2018 belongs to building materials, fuel for cars, fuel (coal) and clothing.

The beginning of the implementation of a set of measures to optimize costs through the modernization of production and the subsequent reduction in the cost of finished goods produced within the republic, as envisaged by the schedule to contain inflation in the third quarter of this year, led to an increase in supply and a decrease in retail prices for bricks by an average of 0,1%.

Along with this, in August 2018, the price of cement continued to grow (0.8% per month). In the framework of measures to monitor prices for construction materials, statistics bodies collect prices from selective outlets and types (grades, marks) of materials from June this year.

Tariffs for services for the population in August 2018 increased by 0.4%, which led to an increase in the consolidated CPI by 0.1 percentage points.

The key factor in the growth of prices for paid services to the population in August 2018 was the increase in prices for liquefied gas sold to the population for domestic needs.

In general, in the republic, liquefied gas increased by an average of 36.3% over the month. The maximum growth was in Bukhara, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Navoi, Samarkand and Surkhandarya regions (1.6 times), the lowest in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm region (1.1 times).

The structure of effect of price changes in tariffs for services in general for January-August 2018, then the greatest contribution to the increase in the index of tariffs in this sphere was made by the increase of tariffs for housing and communal services, passenger transport and household services. In total, they provided about 1.4 percentage points of the total CPI growth for 8 months 2018 (22.6% contribution).