Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute of Macroeconomic and Regional Research (IMRI) analyzed the impact of the dynamics of world oil prices over the past two years on the cost of gasoline in Uzbekistan.

IMRI specialists used data on wholesale fuel prices on the Uzbek Commodity Exchange (UzEX) and retail prices on Tashkent exchanges for analysis. Oil prices were taken from World Bank data for the period January 2022 to November 2023.

Experts noted that oil price fluctuations average a one-month lag in the market and have had limited impact on the local market in 2022.

In the first half of last year, world oil prices rose by 39.2%, and gasoline prices in Uzbekistan by 22.4%. In the second half of the year, oil prices fell by a third, and fuel prices in Uzbekistan fell by 21.3%.

At the beginning of this year, prices for hydrocarbons stabilized, which, combined with the zeroing out of the excise tax on AI-80 gasoline, led to the formation of fuel prices in the range of 4848-5060 soums per liter.

However, over the past six months since June, the wholesale price of gasoline has increased by 10%, reaching 5,860 soums from 5,315 soums. At the same time, the global price of oil increased by 11% - from US$73 to US$81 per barrel.

Each additional percentage to the price of oil entails an increase in wholesale prices for gasoline by 0.3%, according to calculations by IMRI experts. For AI-80 gasoline this is 0.32%, and for AI-92 - 0.54%.

Exchange prices also have a significant impact on prices at gas stations: with an increase in the wholesale price of gasoline by 1% on the Uzbek Exchange, the retail price increases by 0.29%.

On the other hand, oil prices fell by 8.7% in November compared to October. Nevertheless, December retail gasoline prices in the capital increased by 2.3% due to seasonal factors and a reduction in gas supplies to CNG filling stations.