Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, concluded in November with the mediation of Russia, included a provision on the construction of a road that would allow Azerbaijan to gain access to its exclave Nakhichevan through Armenia. This road is likely to stimulate trade between Turkey and Azerbaijan, while reducing Iran’s role in regional transport networks.

Meanwhile, it is noted that in the end it is China with its ambitious Belt and Road initiative that may become the unexpected winner in the six-week Karabakh war.

For most of the decade, Beijing has been laying transport routes to Europe bypassing Russia. One of the overland routes runs from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan through the Caspian Sea, and on to Georgia, Turkey and, ultimately, Europe. The corridor between Nakhichevan and the mainland of Azerbaijan through southern Armenia will provide Beijing with another route to Europe in the South Caucasus, in addition to what already runs through Georgia.

China has never shown interest in challenging Russia’s security role in the former Soviet Union. Rather than competing with Moscow on military issues, Beijing would prefer the South Caucasus to resemble Central Asia - a region that maintains traditional ties with Russia but also opens wide the doors for Chinese business. This approach gives China an additional plus in the unstable Caucasus.

However, the proposed Nakhichevan Corridor is bad news for Tehran. Now cargo from the main part of Azerbaijan to its isolated exclave goes through northern Iran. According to the new agreement, Tehran will lose transit fees. This will further spur Iran to sign a strategic pact, about which it quietly negotiated with the PRC over the past 5 years (the agreement provides for the allocation of US$400 billion over 25 years).

Thus, China could be one of the winners of the ceasefire agreement, gaining a new route for the Belt and Road and additional leverage over Iran during important negotiations.