Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — During a panel discussion at the Investment Forum in Tashkent on 2 May 2024 on the topic "Water Resources Management: the Role of the State, Business, and Society," problems crucial for the sustainable development of the country were discussed.

The session moderator, Igor Alekseev, Partner and Managing Director of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), presented a report on the current challenges and solutions to the water deficit in Uzbekistan.

By 2040, water demand in Uzbekistan is set to rise significantly (+23%) due to population growth and economic demands. 

The demand in industries alone is projected to rise by 150%, in utilities by 60% and agriculture which is a major consumer - by at least 15%. 

While demand is rising, the countrie’s available water resources are shrinking due to climate change and reduction in trans-boundary water inflows. The forecasts show a reduction in water availability by 17% by 2040, with the most severe impacts in the Amu-Darya basin, which is expected to see nearly a 28% decrease. This reduction poses a serious challenge to a water supply stability in the country.

The gap between demand and available resources could result in a water deficit of up to 24 billion cubic meters by 2040 in the most severe scenario.

Addressing this gap is not just important—it’s imperative to Uzbekistan’s national security and economic stability. 

The only way to deal with water reduction is to enhance the water efficiency in Uzbekistan across all sectors. BCG estimates the following 2040 challenging targets for each sector:

•    Utilities need to reduce daily water usage by 15-20%
•    Industries shall reduce their annual water usage by 30-35%
•    Agriculture needs to reduce annual water usage by 40-45% per 1 ton of crop grown

Addressing long-term water deficit issues requires significant capital investments in water-saving technologies in agriculture, establishment of water supply systems, wastewater treatment, or more advanced systems, such as smart irrigation systems and smart manufacturing processes.

Considering the immense amount of investment needed worldwide—around $1 Trillion US Dollars annually—governments alone cannot meet this demand. Besides, many such projects may not yield sufficient returns for private investors.

It’s also worth noting that international development institutions and commercial banks are often enhancing project attractiveness by providing financial incentives (at interest rates below market rates). Such deals can be beneficial for all parties involved.