Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) – On 1 December 2020, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its Economic Outlook, which notes that the outlook for the global economy has improved thanks to progress in the development of coronavirus vaccines and government support.

The main conclusions of the report are as follows.

1. After a significant drop in this year (4.2%), world GDP will increase by about 4.25% in 2021 and by 3.75% in 2022, while production in many countries will remain about 5% lower than before the pandemic began. Experts point out that countries and regions with a developed system for detecting and tracing the coronavirus will better cope with the economic consequences of the epidemic.

2. Improved forecast for US GDP for this year and is expected to decline by 3.7% against 3.8% according to the spring forecast. The growth of the country’s economy in 2021 will be 3.2%, i.e. below the announced forecast (4%), at the same time in 2022 the US economy will expand by 3.5%. Forecast of GDP decline in the eurozone in the current year improved from 7.9 to 7.5%. The volume of production will return to the level of the period before the pandemic only at the end of 2022. According to economists, the fiscal policy of the countries of the euro area should be aimed at supporting business.

3. The report emphasizes that by the end of 2021, the volume of the global economy will return to pre-crisis levels thanks to a strong recovery in China. Chinese GDP is expected by the OECD to increase by 1.8% this year, by 8% in 2021 and by 4.9% in 2022.

The report also points out that the trade conflict between the US and China is likely to trigger further protectionist measures and hurt global trade and economic growth. At the same time, the new agreement on the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (RCEP) of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, on the contrary, will "stimulate trade and provide better access to markets."

In general, the organization’s experts expect a gradual but uneven recovery of the global economy in 2021-2022, based on the fact that the second wave of coronavirus has not yet been overcome, and the use of vaccines in large-scale immunization programs will not be available for 2 years. Economists believe governments should continue to invest in public health measures and support businesses to limit the impact of new virus outbreaks.