Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) —  In November 2024, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) by Freedom Finance Global in Uzbekistan decreased to 129.5 points, following significant growth in October when it reached 132.5.

Despite the decline, improvements were recorded in four of the five sub-indices contributing to the overall index. The largest drop was observed in the sub-index assessing the favorability of current conditions for major purchases. Compared to November 2023, the index decreased by 2.7 points, reflecting reduced optimism regarding the economic situation.

The sub-index for favorable conditions for major purchases fell from 90.7 to 84.2 points, marking the third-lowest result in the study's history. About 39.3% of surveyed Uzbek citizens consider conditions favorable for major expenses, down 2.6 percentage points (p.p.) from October. Regionally, the sharpest decline was noted in the Navoi region, where positive responses dropped by 13.5 p.p. to 33.1%, the lowest rate among all regions. Optimism also fell in Karakalpakstan and the Kashkadarya region by 8 p.p. Conversely, in the Syrdarya region, the share of those finding conditions favorable increased from 36.9% to 49.1%. The Khorezm region remains the leader with 50.7% of positive responses, up 2.6 p.p. from October.

Another significantly affected sub-index was the change in personal financial conditions over the past year, which declined by 3.1 points but remains the second-best result in the past eight months. Nearly 60% of Uzbeks provided positive responses, though this was lower than October's 62.2%. Regionally, the largest decline was in the Fergana region, where positive responses fell from 68.3% to 57.5%. The lowest result was recorded in the Tashkent region (55%). Notable decreases were also seen in the Jizzakh and Bukhara regions, with optimists dropping by 8.3 and 8.2 p.p., respectively. On the other hand, six regions showed positive dynamics, with the Andijan region seeing the greatest improvement, where positive responses rose from 57.6% to 66.1%. The Syrdarya region had the highest share of improved personal financial conditions at 67.2%.

Inflationary perceptions and expectations among Uzbek residents worsened in November compared to October. Over the past year, 50.7% of respondents reported experiencing significant price increases, up from 48.6% in October. Monthly figures also grew slightly, from 29.9% to 30.8%. Expectations of sharp price increases in the following month rose from 18.8% to 26.5%, the highest recorded in the study. Looking a year ahead, 26.2% of respondents expect accelerated price growth, a 2 p.p. increase from October.

However, official statistics show that November’s monthly price increase was just 0.93%, a record low for this period since at least 2011. Annual inflation decreased from 10.24% to 10%. Price growth for meat, especially beef, continued to slow, though it still impacts respondents' sentiments. Nearly 58% of those surveyed indicated "Meat and Poultry" as categories experiencing significant price hikes, down 2.6 p.p. from October. Changes in other prices compared to October were minimal. Slightly more respondents noted price increases for fruits and vegetables (+3.3 p.p.) and vegetable oil (+2 p.p.). Meanwhile, fewer respondents observed price hikes for utilities (-1.4 p.p.) and flour (-0.7 p.p.), with the share noticing price increases reaching a historic low. According to official statistics, oils and fats rose 2.7% monthly, while flour prices dropped 3.1% over the past year, aligning with respondents’ perceptions. A notable monthly vegetable price increase of 9% likely contributed to negative consumer sentiment.

Devaluation expectations in Uzbekistan remained almost unchanged in November compared to October, following two consecutive months of growth. The Uzbek soum weakened for the fourth month in a row, with the dollar exchange rate rising by 0.6%. The share of respondents expecting the national currency to weaken against the dollar within the next 12 months remained at 60.5%. Meanwhile, short-term pessimism grew slightly, with those expecting a one-month devaluation increasing from 42.7% to 43.5%. These figures represent the highest levels in six months but remain significantly lower than in November 2023.

November 2024 was largely negative for Central Asian countries, particularly regarding inflation and expectations of currency weakening. Similar trends were observed in Uzbekistan. While October's progress was not entirely lost, this year saw four consecutive months of lower CCI values. Notably, perceptions of favorable conditions for major purchases deteriorated, and fewer residents believe their financial conditions and the country's economic situation have improved. Compared to November 2023, the CCI in Uzbekistan decreased by 2.7 points, indicating an overall negative trend in 2024.

Daniyar Orazbayev, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, noted that November 2024 was predominantly negative for Central Asia, particularly in inflation and currency devaluation expectations. In Kazakhstan, the CCI dropped after two months of growth, reaching its lowest level since May 2024. Uzbekistan also exhibited a downward CCI trend, though October’s gains were not entirely erased. Conditions for major purchases worsened significantly, with fewer respondents reporting improved personal financial conditions and economic prospects. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, consumer confidence improved in November but remained below earlier highs.

The study, conducted in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, gathers monthly data from 3,600 respondents in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, 1,600 in Kyrgyzstan, and 1,200 in Tajikistan. The methodology, adapted for local contexts by United Research Technologies Group, involves phone surveys conducted in respondents’ native languages.