Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — In August 2024, the consumer confidence index in Uzbekistan continued to recover following a recent decline in April-June. The index increased from 128.4 to 130.9 points, according to Freedom Finance Global.

All five sub-indices contributing to the overall index showed growth. The largest increase was seen in the sub-index for favorable conditions for major purchases, which reached a record high of 92.3 points. This represents a 3.5-point increase from the previous month and a 1.3-point increase compared to August 2023, reflecting improved optimism regarding personal financial situations.

Regionally, the largest improvement was observed in Jizzakh region, where the share of respondents with positive responses increased from 32.7% to 42.6%. The leading region in August was Navoi, with more than 50% of respondents reporting positive outlooks. In Tashkent, while the share of positive responses grew from 34.9% to 36.2%, it remains relatively low.

The sub-index for changes in personal financial situations saw the most significant growth, increasing by 6 points compared to August 2023 and reaching 130.7 points. 57.7% of respondents reported positive changes in their financial situations, a 3-point increase from the previous year. The largest growth in this sub-index was noted in Syrdarya region, where the share of those perceiving improvement rose from 45.5% to 58%. Conversely, in Khorezm region, the proportion of optimists decreased from 61.5% to 55.1%. In Tashkent, the indicator was 50.3%, while Ferghana region led with 62.9%.

Inflation expectations in August rose sharply. 48.2% of the population reported a significant rise in prices over the past year, compared to 42.6% in July. The share of those expecting substantial price increases over the next month grew from 11.4% to 20%. Over the year, 27% of respondents expect faster price increases, up by 2.3 points from July.

Official statistics for August show a monthly price increase of 0.5%, while annual inflation remained at 10.47%. Prices for meat rose by 4.9-5.3%, impacting consumer sentiment negatively. August saw record price increases for meat and poultry in the past year, with 57.8% of respondents identifying these items as most expensive. Utility services rose only by 0.2% month-over-month, and the share of respondents selecting this option decreased from 44.8% to 31.9%. Prices for medicines increased by just 0.8% month-over-month, and the share of respondents noting this dropped from 23.9% to 13.7%.

In August, devaluation expectations fell for the fourth consecutive month, reaching a record low. The share of those expecting the national currency to weaken against the dollar over the next year dropped from 53% to 49.1%. The proportion of pessimists for the month decreased from 33% to 32.2%. Compared to August 2023, the share of those expecting a devaluation of the sum fell by 13.6 points, and over the month by 15.2 points.

Overall, consumer confidence in Central Asia showed mixed results in August. Uzbekistan experienced a significant rise in inflationary assessments, reaching multi-month highs. However, devaluation expectations continued to decline, reaching new record lows. Despite some decline in inflationary sentiments, consumer confidence in the region shows growth compared to 2023.

Daniyar Orazbaev, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, noted: "August 2024 was mixed for Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, the consumer confidence index declined after four months of decrease but remained above the neutral level of 100 points. In Kyrgyzstan, the index continued to rise for the sixth consecutive month, reaching record levels due to improved economic conditions and major purchase opportunities. In Tajikistan, there was a slight decrease in the index in August following its rise in July, but overall the index increased by 10.6 points compared to last year. In Uzbekistan, the index rose for the second consecutive month, partially recovering from a sharp decline and reaching new records for conditions related to major purchases."