Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The Center for Economic Research and Reform (CERR) has estimated GDP forecasts for 2022 using a new approach (nocasting) based on extremely detailed streams of large data streams.

Based on the collection of approximately 250 weekly Google search results across 20 indicator categories, combined with individual product price estimates (including gold and oil price changes), as well as fundamental variables of gross imports and inventories a weekly forecast of the GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan was carried out.

The economy of Uzbekistan has been significantly affected by negative external shocks. The analysis takes into account the negative factors that the country was exposed to in the 1st half of 2022 (political unrest in Kazakhstan, a large-scale power outage and the conflict in Ukraine).

The forecasts revealed special aspects of GDP that cannot be revealed in quarterly figures. In particular, a significant slowdown was observed during February and March of this year. But, the subsequent economic recovery has also been significant.

Economic growth in Uzbekistan in the first quarter is usually lower due to seasonal factors. During 2018-2021, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in the first quarters was on average 0.43% less than annual GDP growth. Therefore, negative factors exacerbated the economic impact and slowed down GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022.

Projected weekly GDP growth in Uzbekistan in 2022

Taking into account the above factors, as well as consolidating the weekly forecast indicators of GDP dynamics, the estimated economic growth in the 1st half of 2022 compared to the 1st half of 2021 amounted to 4.99%.

Accordingly, there is a growing trend in the weekly dynamics of GDP for the 2nd half of 2022, which will increase the GDP growth rate by at least 0.68% year on year. According to this, real GDP growth for 2022 is projected at 5.77%.

Based on this, the forecast range for Uzbekistan’s economic growth is set at 5.67%-5.87% for 2022.

Nocasting is a method that is widely used in the development of national economic policies in many developed countries, including the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the OECD. Models of this kind have similar characteristics to the current traditional models, but significantly outperform them during "crisis" episodes (eg 2008–2009, 2020 and the current situation). The current method is relevant in that key statistics are available with significant delay, especially for quarterly GDP figures. This forecast is also used to assess specific aspects of the state of the economy, such as the labor market and the well-being of the population.