Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- According to the results of the first half of 2023, the growth of Uzbekistan’s economy amounted to 5.6%, whereas in early April of this year, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) predicted growth at the level of 5.65%. In its new report, the CERR revised the forecast for the growth of economic results in 2023. According to the estimates, GDP growth for 9 months of this year will be 5.5%.

According to the Statistics Agency, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in the 1st half of 2023 amounted to 5.6%. This corresponds to the forecast corridor of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, at 5.50%-5.75%, although slightly lower than the 5.65% expected by experts.

Experts draw attention to the fact that the main factors of economic growth are associated with the timely adoption of urgent measures to support entrepreneurs and the growth of output in most sectors of the economy. Thus, the growth of industry amounted to 5.6%, investments increased by 7.9%, the construction sector by 4.8%, retail turnover by 6.9%. The largest industrial sector – manufacturing – grew by 6.3%.

It should be noted that the CERR forecast for the first half of 2023 showed high accuracy, with a deviation of the expected GDP growth by only 0.05 percentage points compared to the actual data of the Statistics Agency.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms has released an updated forecast of the development of the economy of Uzbekistan for the first nine months of this year.

Since August of this year, a slight decrease in the weekly GDP dynamics is expected, which is due to the continuing economic difficulties of some of Uzbekistan’s trading partners. In addition, there are risks of reducing water resources in agriculture and remittances, as well as the continuation of tight monetary policy to curb inflation.

At the same time, the risks are associated with a decrease in economic activity, which has been observed since the beginning of summer. In particular, the Business activity index in June decreased by 7.8 percentage points compared to the previous month of this year, and the consolidated business climate indicator also lost 3 points relative to May indicators, but remained in a positive area.

Despite these constraining factors and consolidating weekly forecast indicators of GDP dynamics, the country’s economic growth for the first nine months of 2023 is projected at 5.5%. At the same time, the predicted range will vary between 5.3% - 5.6%.

Forecasts based on the "nowcasting" model have been used by CERR since 2021 and allow revealing special aspects of GDP that cannot be identified in quarterly figures. The GDP forecast is calculated based on weekly Google search results for 20 categories, combined with estimates of prices for individual products and fundamental variables of gross imports and inventories.