Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Center for Economic Research and Reform (CERR) has presented its economic forecast for Uzbekistan for the first quarter of 2025, based on advanced analytical methods and international experience.

The calculations rely on nowcasting, a method for real-time analysis of large datasets, which helps identify current economic trends and forecast future developments.

Despite global challenges and macroeconomic uncertainty, Uzbekistan’s economy maintained steady growth in 2024. The key drivers were the services sector, manufacturing industry, construction, and a high level of investment activity. This positive momentum continued in early 2025.

The increase in business activity is confirmed by the Business Activity Index (BAI), which, according to CERR estimates, grew by 8.4% in January 2025 compared to December 2024. Two key indicators within the BAI stand out: a 33.3% increase in raw material procurement on the commodity exchange and a 1.1% rise in the number of active business entities.

January 2025 saw strong economic growth. Tax and customs revenues, foreign trade volumes, and the number of new enterprises all showed steady increases. Specifically, tax revenues grew by 10.3%, while customs payments rose by 14.5%. Over the month, 6,126 new business entities were registered, and exports of goods increased by 8.1%.

The main growth factors for Uzbekistan’s economy in 2025 will include high investment activity, the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects in renewable energy and transport, and an increase in real household incomes.

Additional support will come from stable remittance inflows, which will boost consumer demand, and export growth, driven by favorable price trends for gold and other raw materials. During a presidential meeting reviewing 2024 results and 2025 plans, key macroeconomic targets were outlined: GDP is expected to reach $120 billion, investment volume $42 billion, and exports $30 billion.

To provide a real-time assessment of the current GDP level, CERR utilizes cutting-edge analytical tools. A weekly GDP forecast has been developed based on more than 250 weekly Google search queries across 20 key categories, price dynamics for specific goods, and fundamental economic indicators such as gross imports and inventory levels.

Based on current data, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 6.2%, within a forecast range of 6.0% to 6.4%.

According to an updated report by the World Bank, Uzbekistan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund estimates 5.7% growth, while the Asian Development Bank, in September 2024, raised its forecast to 6.2%, citing positive trends in industry and construction.

Thus, the CERR forecast, based on real-time monitoring of key economic indicators and considering both internal and external macroeconomic factors, provides a reliable assessment of Uzbekistan’s GDP dynamics even before the release of official statistics.