Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- At a time when the process of population aging covers more and more countries, becoming a global problem, the demographic situation in Uzbekistan is undergoing a process of rejuvenation. The sharp increase in the birth rate over the past five years indicates that our country is on the verge of a demographic dividend.

By the beginning of 2022, the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan amounted to 35.3 million people, which is 712 thousand people (2.1%) more than last year. This population growth is mainly due to relatively low mortality and high birth rates. So, in 2021, the number of births amounted to 905 thousand children. In terms of regions, a relatively high birth rate is observed in Samarkand (110 thousand children), Ferghana (99 thousand children), Kashkadarya (97 thousand children) and Andijan (85 thousand children) regions.

A surge in the number of births has been observed in the Republic of Uzbekistan over the past five years. The sharp increase in fertility is mainly observed in women aged 25 to 39 years. Fertility among women aged 15 to 24 remains virtually unchanged. The percentage of births to women 40 and older is less than 1%. This situation is observed both in urban and rural areas.

The birth of first-born children averaged about 280 thousand per year, and in 2019 an increase to 352.7 thousand was recorded. In subsequent years, the number of births of the first children returned to 280-290 thousand per year. The growth in the number of births of second children has smooth dynamics at the level of 280 thousand per year.

The main increase in the birth rate falls on the third and subsequent children. So, in 2016, 204.9 thousand were born, and in 2021 - 325.2 thousand third children. The increase in the birth rate of this category of children, in turn, falls on women aged 25 to 39 years.

The total fertility rate (number of children per woman) increased from 2.46 children in 2016 to 3.17 children in 2021. This figure was 3.40 in the countryside and 2.95 in the city.

The number of children born in informal families decreased from 2016 to 2020, respectively, from 60.2 thousand to 55.7 thousand.

According to demographic forecasts, until 2030 the number of births will remain at the same level (on average 900-950 thousand), and the population will exceed 41 million people. It is expected that by 2030, as a result of changes in the age structure of the population, the number of young people under 18 and adults of working age will increase to 2.4 million and 1.4 million people, respectively.

The demographic dividend. By the beginning of 2022, the indicator of child pressure on the working population in the world was 41 children, 25 - in developed countries, 42 - in developing countries and 68 - in less developed countries. According to forecasts, the beginning of the payment of the demographic "tax" in the world is expected by 2045 (35 children). In some regions, they have already begun to pay a demographic “tax”, for example, in Europe since 1995 (31 children), in North America - since 2015 (32 children), in Russia - since 2000 (29 children). At the same time, in Asia (32 children) and Latin America (33 children), tax payments are expected to start from 2040.

Forecasts indicate that the risk of paying demographic tax in Uzbekistan until 2030 is not expected. According to calculations, the demographic burden in Uzbekistan in 2000 was 92.2 people (children - 78.1, elderly - 14.2). By 2013, the pressure has decreased to a minimum level of 62.0 people, and in 2022 it is expected to increase to 75.8 people. By 2030, a moderate increase (84.2 people) is expected in the republic (among children - 59.7, the elderly - 24.4).

Population growth primarily puts pressure on health and education systems. Effective use of the demographic dividend requires investment in the development of human capital.

Healthcare. By the beginning of 2021, there were 1,232 hospitals in the republic, i.e. there were 47 hospitals per 10,000 population. There are also 6032 outpatient clinics that receive 683 thousand visitors in one shift, which is 197 people. per 10,000 population. The number of medical personnel in these institutions is 93 thousand people, i.e. for every 10,000 population, there are 27 medical staff or 370 patients per doctor. Also, there are 17.3 thousand places for pregnant women and women in childbirth, for every 10,000 women of childbearing age there are 19 places. As of 2021, among women of childbearing age, the proportion of women who terminated a pregnancy was 8.9%. By 2030, in order to maintain and improve the health of citizens, taking into account population growth, it is necessary to increase the number of outpatient clinics to 7041.

According to WHO, there are approximately 16 doctors and 38 nurses per 10,000 people in the world (including midwives in most countries).

In the countries of the European region, on average, there are 34 doctors per 10,000 population, in America - 24, in the Western Pacific region - 19, in the Eastern Mediterranean - 10, in Southeast Asia - 8, in Uzbekistan - 27.

If in the countries of Europe and America there are more than 80 (81 and 83) nurses per 10,000 population, then in Uzbekistan there are 107 nurses. In the republic, the number of doctors and nurses does not differ from that in developed countries. The lowest rates of provision with nurses in the regions are observed in Surkhandarya (15.0), Jizzakh (16) and Kashkadarya (18) regions.

According to the expected forecasts, the average annual population in the republic will increase by 720.0 thousand people, and even with such an increase, the burden on doctors and nurses will not be large. According to calculations, by 2030 the provision with doctors will be 29.4 per 10,000 population, and with nurses - 117.8.

For example, higher education institutions annually release more than 4.0 thousand specialists into the labor market, and colleges train more than 55.0 thousand medical workers. On average, about 40.0 thousand employees are fired annually, and more than 60.0 thousand are hired. The real increase in the number of people employed in the healthcare sector is more than 20.0 thousand people. The measures taken to increase the coverage of higher education and expand quotas will be able to ensure an increase in the number of doctors with higher education, which, in turn, will increase the provision of the population with doctors and health workers.

Education system. By the beginning of 2022, the number of children aged 3 to 6 years was 2855.2 thousand people, according to the expected forecasts, by 2026 their number will be 3567.3 thousand, by 2030 - 3631.9 thousand people.

In order to maintain the existing indicators of coverage of children aged 3-6 with preschool education, as well as to achieve indicators similar to rapidly developing countries of the world (about 80%) in the future, it is necessary to create new places in preschool educational institutions for 1400 thousand children in all regions of the republic and prepare qualified educators.

To ensure universal coverage, an additional US$38.5 trillion should be allocated from the budget. soums. Regional analysis showed that Samarkand, Tashkent, Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya regions will have high rates of growth in the number of children in the future, but at present the level of enrollment in preschool education is low. Due to the full coverage of children aged 3-6 with preschool education, 28.0 thousand new jobs can be created by 2030.

In the 2021/2022 academic year, a total of 441.3 thousand students graduated from general education schools, in the 2022/2023 academic year, 701.9 thousand children entered the 1st grade, and in the 2022/2023 academic year, 260 additional students will be admitted .6 thousand students, for the enrollment of which new places will be required.

In the 2021/2022 academic year, the total design capacity of schools amounted to 5111.1 thousand places. According to forecast calculations, the number of children aged 7-17 years will be 7642.7 thousand by 2026 and 8660.8 thousand by 2030.

By the 2029/2030 academic year, the difference between those entering grade 1 and graduates will average 162.8 thousand students, for whom at least 4.5 thousand new teachers will need to be attracted.

In the 2021/2022 academic year, the total number of students was 6304.6 thousand, and the number of teachers - 529.1 thousand, i.e. there were 11.9 students per teacher. In developed countries, this figure does not exceed 10 students.

Every year, higher education institutions release an average of 30,000 teachers with higher education into the labor market. By 2030, as a result of bringing the level of enrollment in higher education to 50% and increasing the number of quotas for women, higher education institutions will be able to train an average of 35-40 thousand teaching staff annually. As a result, there will be 10 students per teacher. Based on these calculations, teachers are expected to be in demand in the near future and there is no shortage of them.

Today there are 178 higher educational institutions in the republic. In the 2021/2022 academic year, the number of students admitted to higher education institutions amounted to 235.9 thousand people. At the same time, the total number of students reached 808.4 thousand people, and the level of enrollment in higher education for middle-level graduates was up to 38%.

To ensure 50 percent coverage of graduates of secondary education with higher education, to the existing capacities of universities, it is required, based on the following parameters, to introduce new student places: by 2026, the total number of graduates of secondary education is expected to be 619.0 thousand people, and by 2030 - 615.5 thousand people.

By 2030, it is planned to gradually introduce an additional 646.8 thousand student places. To do this, the current capacity of universities must be increased by 1.5-1.8 times within 8 years.

Sample survey results. To identify the reasons for the high birth rate, IPMI experts conducted a survey among the population. The survey was conducted among 200 women aged 25-45 with 3 or more children living in Tashkent city and Tashkent region (N=200) in September and October 2022.

The questionnaire covered a number of questions and the following results were obtained for them: the expectation of an acceptable number of children among the population is 3-4 children (82.9% for mothers, 81.0% for spouses).

The main reasons for making a decision to have a child were: improved health (43.8%), improved marital status (47.9%);

36.2% of families wanted to have another child, a boy - 19.0% and a girl - 14.3% of families. In 33.4% of families, the child was born unplanned;

87.9% of the women who participated in the survey use contraceptives, 12.1% said they do not use them at all;

use of contraceptives: spiral - 63.8%, various drugs - 17.1%, other methods - 30.5%. Also, 29.4% of women noted that contraceptives are used by the spouse.

In general, according to the results of the survey, the main reasons for the high birth rate were:

increase in incomes of the population;

formation of a positive attitude towards large families among the population;

insufficient medical culture.

IPMI experts conducted an empirical analysis to identify factors affecting the birth rate in Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on data from the State Statistics Committee for the period 2010-2021. by regions. The influence of socioeconomic factors on fertility was assessed using a random effect model. The results of the model are presented in Table 1.

Thus, according to the results of econometric analysis, the following factors lead to an increase in the birth rate: real per capita income (6.3%), unemployment among women (4%), an increase in the proportion of the poor (1.2%) and life expectancy (0.19%). %).

The increase in enrollment in pre-school education (-0.02%) and the enrollment of women in higher education (-0.04%) contributes to a decrease in the birth rate.

It should be noted that the influence of factors such as the number of labor migrants, average wages, total investment in the economy, GRP per capita, contraceptive use, the number of abortions and the overall unemployment rate were not statistically significant.

Offers. Relatively high population growth rates create broad opportunities for the development of the country’s economy. In turn, given the high demographic potential of the republic, it is advisable to implement the following measures:

1. In order to avoid a fiscal burden in the face of increasing public debt, it is important to establish systematic work with private participants in the education and healthcare market, eliminating all restrictions as much as possible, while facilitating the issuance of licenses and other documents.

2. It is expedient for members of the regional Kengash of people’s deputies to take into account the forecasts of demographic development in the distribution of budgetary funds and medium-term planning of the social infrastructure of the region.

3. Given the demographic projections, international and local education and health market participants, as well as relevant technology providers, can be confident in the medium-term demand for education and health services in making investment decisions in Uzbekistan.

4. The results of the forecasts indicate the importance of conducting synchronized and phased reforms aimed at increasing the efficient use of energy, water and land resources.