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Economy 07/09/2009 Business activity in Uzbekistan grows by 3 points in August
State Demonopolization Committee of Uzbekistan
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Center for improvement of antimonopoly policies of the State Demonopolization Committee of Uzbekistan issued Business Activity Index for August 2009.

APIC 50 index developed based on answers of 50 largest industrial and service enterprises, which sensible for changes in global and local markets and do not have significant seasonal fluctuation for their products and services. In July, the index was developed on survey of 40 enterprises.

Center for improvement of antimonopoly policies decided to use two the most spread methods on calculation of business activity: PMI (Purchasing managers’ index) and IFO (Business climate index). Use of both methodologies is necessary to determine methodology is the most effective for work with received data and show real situation of business sector and its expectations. The center said methodology will improve regularly and number of respondents will increase.

Index on IFO methodology is integral and it includes assessment of current situation and expectation to forthcoming month. Value of index can vary between -100 and +100, but it usually fluctuates between -50 and +50. At the same time, positive value speaks about favourable situation and negative about fall of business activity and optimism.

IFO index made up 21.4% in August compared to 18.4% in July, which shows positive growth of business sector compared to previous month. So, the business activity grew by 3 percentage points.

Within PMI methodology, the center developed two separate index - CPMI (current) and EPMI (expected). This approach can help to determine how optimism level in current month will correspond to situation in future. Index value can vary from 0 to 100, but usually it fluctuates between 40 and 60. If PMI index is higher than 50, the business activity growth is observed, otherwise - recession.

The center said it developed general figures for all industries and separate figures for industry and service sectors.

The center said CPMI index was 60.1, which shows 3 points growth compared to July, when the figure was 57. EPMI index was 61.5, which displays positive expectation for September 2009.

The center noted that business activity in industry significantly grew in August compared to July (23.2 against 11.7%). Forecasts of industrial sector for August did not meet expectations. The index for August made up 62.9, while forecast was 55.4%. Industrial sector expects fall of the growth in September from 62.9 to 60.3.

Business activity in service sector was 56.1 compared to expected figure of 62.6. Both methodologies showed that the service sector growth was lower in August compared in July. (IFO - 18.7 against 23.3, PMI - 56.1 against 60.8).

Expectation of service sector forecasts the growth rate of 6.7 points to 62.8, the center said.

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