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World 14/12/2020 Barnett Rubin: "There is only one way out of Afghanistan - cooperation with regional powers"
Barnett Rubin: "There is only one way out of Afghanistan - cooperation with regional powers"

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Barnett Rubin (born 1950) - political scientist, leading expert on Afghanistan and South Asia, director of the Center for International Cooperation at New York University. In 2009-2013, he worked as a senior adviser to the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, advises the UN, NATO, and the US presidential administration.

The Biden administration must continue the process of withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan in accordance with the US-Taliban agreement. However, reducing the size of the military contingent should be part of a coordinated regional strategy, since the PRC, India, IRI, IRP and Russia are also interested in a stable Afghanistan and want a responsible withdrawal of American troops from the region without aggravating the situation in Afghanistan.

The Afghan policy of Washington under Donald Trump not only ignored the importance of cooperation with key neighbors of Afghanistan, but also hindered the strengthening of their relations with Afghanistan, aimed, in many respects, at its socio-economic stabilization. It must always be borne in mind that key regional countries have enormous potential to facilitate the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and establish a long-term and sustainable peace in a war-torn country.

The United States could strengthen cooperation with China on the Afghan track by:

1) the resumption of the joint program for training Afghan diplomats, initiated by the Obama administration;

2) the establishment of cooperation in the field of security, in particular, the training of Afghan soldiers. Washington should not oppose One Belt, One Road, which is regarded as a threat to American interests in the region, but should try to influence it by joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Afghanistan is also a promising theater for cooperation with Iran. On the one hand, Washington could actively encourage American companies to invest in the port of Chabahar, which plays an extremely important role in the economic revival of the "locked on land" IRA. On the other hand, Tehran and Washington have common interests in the fight against ISIS.

The US should explore possible ways to enhance cooperation with India and Pakistan, which are important destinations for Afghan exports. The lifting of US sanctions on Iran will allow India and other countries to establish road and rail links to expand these exports through Chabahar. New Delhi’s deeper economic ties with Afghanistan will also provide a platform for India to participate in regional peace efforts.

At the same time, a coordinated regional policy, especially with the PRC, would help the United States to enlist greater support from Pakistan in a political settlement of the conflict in Afghanistan. To ensure the sustainability of the intra-Afghan agreement, Islamabad could close the military and logistic facilities of diesel fuel on its territory. The IRP is already discussing this aspect of the settlement in high-level talks with Kabul, London and Washington.

Successful implementation of the agreement with Taliban will also require Moscow’s help. Cooperation with Russia will be vital to revise the timetables and amend the UN sanctions regime on Taliban. Washington should turn to the RF and the PRC for help in improving contacts with Iran, IRP and India.

The United States could take advantage of the unique capabilities of the UN. The organization could play a more important role, either by expanding the powers of the UN special envoy for Afghanistan, or by appointing a separate special envoy for international diplomacy in support of the Afghan peace process. Washington could support the creation of a new UN regional center in Central Asia to support the Afghan peace process and expand the necessary regional cooperation.

Uzbekistan has already expressed interest in hosting UN offices, and the international community could ask Tashkent to create such a center. It is important to emphasize that since 2016, the Uzbek government has signed dozens of agreements with Afghanistan, established rail links with it, facilitated transit trade, created an international logistics center and a free economic zone on the Afghan border, which strengthened the country’s role in "Afghan issues." Japan and the EU looking for ways to expand their soft power in Central Asia may want to fund the creation of a UN regional center in Uzbekistan.

 

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