Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In September 2020, the average level of consumer prices and tariffs in Uzbekistan increased by 1.4%, the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan said.

In January-September 2020, prices and tariffs in the consumer market increased by an average of 6.3%. 

In annual terms (to September 2019), the average increase in prices and tariffs for goods and services amounted to 11.7%.

The average monthly CPI 1 growth in January-September 2020 amounted to 0.7% against 1.0% in the same period in 2019.

Food products in September this year rose on average by 2.2%, non-food products - by 1.0%, services - by 0.5%.

Due to the rise in prices for food products, the consolidated CPI for the month increased by 0.9 p.p.

The rise in prices for non-food products added 0.4 p.p. to the consolidated indicator for the month.

The increase in prices and tariffs for services increased the consolidated indicator for the month by an additional 0.1 p.p.

Against the background of the relative stability of the impact on the monthly increase in the consolidated CPI of price changes from non-food products (fluctuations within 0.1-0.4 p.p.) and services (0.1-0.2 p.p.), the contribution range food inflation in January-September this year was broader (from -0.6 p.p. to 1.4 p.p.).

In general, in January-September 2020, the level of prices for food products increased by 7.5%, non-food products - by 6.0%, services -by 4.5%.

An assessment of the contribution of price changes, taking into account the share of each enlarged group, showed that in January-September 2020, food products continued to dominate on a monthly basis.

By September of this year, the contribution of price changes for goods to the increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2019 reached 5.3 p.p. At the same time, the dynamics of the influence of price increases for non-food products and paid services from January to September was steadily directed towards the growth (respectively, from 0.1 p.p.to 2.1 p.p. and from 0.1 p.p.to 1.0 p.p.). 

For food products, this indicator increased in the first four months of the year (from 0.4 p.p. to 3.3 p.p.), after which the seasonal factor was reflected in a decrease in the contribution (to 2.1 p.p. in July and 2.2 p.p. - in August), and in September increased by 1 point and reached 3.2 p.p.

In specific indicators, the share of the impact of price changes in food products in September 2020 amounted to 50.6%, non-food products - 33.0%, services - 16.4% of the total increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2019.

As for the impact of price changes in the main groups of goods and services on the growth of the consolidated CPI in annual terms, in September of this year due to the growth in prices for food products this indicator increased by 7.5 percentage points. (64.4% of the total influence), non-food products - by 2.8 percentage points. (24.1%), services - by 1.4 p.p. (11.5%).

The observed types of food products increased in price by 2.2% on average over the month. The short-term CPI versus the previous month in this group was largely influenced by the rise in prices for meat and fat and oil products, bakery products, eggs, as well as seasonal fluctuations in prices for fruits and vegetables.

Since the beginning of 2020, the average growth in prices for goods in this group amounted to 7.5% with an average monthly increase of 0.8%. Compared to September 2019, food prices increased by 17.7% on average.

Of the main observed groups of food products in September this year, the most significant price increases were recorded for eggs (6.5%), meat, poultry, fish (3.8%) and fruits and vegetables (3.0%). Fat and oil products for the month added in price by 2.3%, bakery products - by 1.2%, dairy products - by 1.0%, sugar, tea and other food products - by 0.5%, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages - by 0.4% and 0.2%. Prices in the public catering sector in September increased by 1.3%.

Compared to the end of 2019, the most significant price increases were recorded for eggs, meat, poultry and fish (14.2%), bakery products (13.1%), oil and fats (9.8%), dairy products (7.5%), as well as sugar, tea and other food products (6.2%). Prices in public catering increased over this period by 9.0%. Along with this, fruit and vegetable products became cheaper by 6.3% since the beginning of the year.

The peak of growth in prices for bakery products during January-September 2020 was recorded in April, when prices for goods in this group increased by an average of 4.3%. The average monthly CPI growth in January-September in this group was 1.4%.

Among bakery products (including cereals and legumes) for the month, higher than for other goods in this group, there was an increase in prices for rice and rice cuts (3.2%), peas (2.8%), as well as for vermicelli, pasta and similar products (ranging from 0.8% to 1.2%). A decrease in prices was recorded for buckwheat (-1.2%) and beans (-2.4%). Buckwheat (1.5 times), beans (1.4 times), peas and mung bean (1.2 times) continue to hold the lead in price growth relative to the end of last year.

In September, the most significant increase in prices for meat, poultry and fish was recorded (3.8%), and their minimum increase was recorded in January, June and July (0.4% each). The CPI for these products in September this year to December 2019 amounted to 114.2% with an average monthly growth of 1.5%.

Meat products increased in price by 3.8% on average over the month (14.2% YTD). Lamb added in price over the month by 5.7% (20.9%), beef (excluding boneless meat) - by 5.4% (17.4%), boneless beef - by 5.0% (17.2% ), minced meat - by 4.2% (14.1%), pork - by 1.4% (10.0%), chicken legs and drumstick - by 0.3% (4.6%). Other poultry meat, on the contrary, became cheaper by 0.3% over the month, while compared to December 2019 it increased by 1.7%.

The dynamics of egg prices in January-September 2020 was uneven. A decrease in prices for the month was recorded in February (-2.1%), March (-3.5%), June (-2.5%) and July (-2.3%), and the most noticeable price increase was noted in April (8.1%), May (5.5%) and September (6.5%). The CPI for eggs in September this year against December 2019 amounted to 114.2% with an average monthly growth of the index by 1.5%.

The dynamics of prices for dairy products in January-September 2020 is characterized by an upward trend. The maximum monthly prices in this group increased in April (2.5%), the minimum - in July (0.1%). The CPI for dairy products in September this year against December 2019 amounted to 107.5% with an average monthly growth of the index by 0.8%.

Among dairy products, prices for milk (1.5-1.7%), suzma (1.7%) and cream (1.6%) rised more significantly than others. Since the beginning of the year, the most significant growth in prices was recorded for kefir, yogurt (10.4%) and fresh milk (10.2%).

From January to September 2020, the maximum monthly growth in prices for fruits and vegetables was recorded in April (6.6%), and a decrease in June (-8.4%). In September, the increase in prices for fruits, vegetables and potatoes amounted to 3.0% over the month. At the same time, the average level of prices for these products in September this year against December last year decreased by 6.3%.

Among the goods of this group in September, the most pronounced growth in prices was for pomegranates (15.5%), cabbage (14.1%), peaches (14.2%) and bananas (14.0%). Along with this, a decrease in prices was recorded for tomatoes (-6.4%), bell peppers (-6.3%), lemons (-6.1%), apples (-1.4%).

Compared to the end of 2019, the leadership in price growth belongs to lemons (1.5 times), in terms of decline - to bell peppers (85.8%).

Sugar, tea and other products increased significantly in price from March to May (in the range from 1.0% to 1.6%) compared to other months, and in September they became more expensive by 0.5%. The CPI for this group of goods in September this year to December 2019 amounted to 106.2% with an average monthly growth of the index by 0.7%.

Prices for granulated sugar in September of this year increased by 0.7% (since the beginning of the year - by 5.4%), refined sugar - by 0.6% (6.8%). Over the month, confectionery increased in price by 0.6% (since the beginning of the year - by 6.9%), coffee and tea - by 0.5% (since the beginning of the year - by 5.6%), other food products (salt, spices, seasonings, etc.) - by 0.3% (4.6%).

The most significant monthly price increase for oil and fats was recorded in September (2.3%), the minimum price increase - in January (0.1%). The average monthly CPI growth in this group of goods in January-September amounted to 1.0%. Since the beginning of the year, oil and fat products have risen in price by an average of 9.8%.

In September 2020, cottonseed oil became more expensive by 3.0% over the month, sunflower oil - by 2.4%, butter - by 1.6%, animal and melted fats - by 1.1%, margarine - by 0.8% Since the beginning of the year, sunflower oil has risen in price by 11.3%, cottonseed oil - by 9.4%, butter - by 9.3%, margarine - by 8.6%, animal and rendered fats - by 8.4%.

With regard to changes in consumer prices for the main groups of food products in annual terms, the leadership in terms of price growth relative to the corresponding month of last year belongs to eggs (47.5%).

Analysis of the structure of the influence of changes in prices of the main groups of food products on the value of the consolidated CPI for the month showed that the most significant contribution to the change in the consolidated indicator was made by price changes for fruit and vegetable and meat products. Due to the rise in prices for meat, poultry and fish, the consolidated CPI for the month increased by 0.39 p.p., fruits and vegetables - by 0.23 p.p., bakery products - by 0.08 p.p., fat and oil products - by 0.07 percentage points, eggs - by 0.06 p.p., sugar, tea and other products - by 0.03 p.p.

In the structure of the consolidated CPI growth by December 2019, the most significant share of food products belongs to meat, poultry and fish (1.45 p.p), as well as baked goods (0.90 p.p). Due to the growth in prices for sugar, tea and spices, the consolidated CPI increased by 0.36 p.p. by December 2019, oil and fats - by 0.29 p.p. dairy products - by 0.26 p.p. eggs - by 0.12 p.p. Due to the decline in prices for fruits, vegetables and potatoes, the aggregate indicator decreased by 0.49 p.p. As for the consolidated CPI in annual terms, among food products the most significant contribution to the growth of the aggregate indicator was made by bread products (2.04 p.p.), meat, poultry and fish (1.99 p.p.), fruits and vegetables (1.06 p.p.), as well as sugar, tea and other products (0.60 p.p.).

Non-food products in September 2020 increased in price by 1.0% on average. Compared to December 2019, the increase in prices for goods in this group amounted to 6.0%, in September 2019 - 8.2%. The average monthly CPI growth for non-food products in January-September 2020 was 0.6%.

In September 2020, of the main monitored groups of non-food products, the leader in price growth per month belongs to fuel for cars, which on average became more expensive by 3.4%.

Compared to December 2019, prices for printed products (13.7%) and construction materials (11.3%) increased most significantly.

In annual terms, tobacco products, books, newspapers, magazines (15.6%) and construction materials (14.1%) became leaders in price growth.

As for the contribution of price changes of the main groups of nonfood products to the increase in the consolidated CPI for the month, at the end of September 2020, the most significant contribution, taking into account the specific weight, was made by the increase in prices for clothing and footwear (0.11 p.p.), fuel, etc. spare parts for cars (0.09 p.p.). 

Due to the growth in prices for medicines, the aggregate indicator increased by 0.04 p.p., household textiles, furniture, carpets and rugs - by a total of 0.03 p.p., communications, basic household goods and electrical appliances - by 0.02 p.p., personal hygiene products, detergents and cleaning products - by 0.02 p.p. 

The increase in prices for other groups of non-food products added about 0.05 p.p. The top three in terms of contribution to the growth of the consolidated CPI in September of the current year to December 2019 from the main groups of non-food products included clothing (0.41 p.p.), building materials (0.37 p.p.) and medicines (0, 30 p.p.). 

In total, these groups provided over 52% of the total influence of non-food products. The leading positions in terms of influence on the growth of the consolidated CPI in annual terms among non-food products also belong to the three above-mentioned groups. 

Thus, due to the growth in prices for clothing, this indicator increased by 0.65 p.p, building materials - by 0.46 p.p, medicines - by 0.38 p.p. The total contribution of these groups to the increase in the consolidated CPI in annual terms amounted to about 52% of the total impact of non-food products.

In September 2020, the increase in tariffs for paid services to the population for the month amounted to 0.5%, with an average monthly increase in the CPI in this area for January-September 2020 by 0.5%. Compared to the end of 2019, the increase in tariffs was 4.5%, and in annual terms - 5.9%.

The leader in tariff growth in September this year belongs to passenger transport services, which increased in price by 1.6% over the month, including air services - by 0.9%, railway - by 0.3%, automobile - by 2.1 %. The provision, in order to maintain the solvency of the population in the context of a pandemic, of discounts on the amount of the basic fee for full-time education on a contract basis in state universities in the country, led to a decrease in the total cost of services in the field of education by an average of 2.3%.

In general, in January-September 2020, the leadership in the growth of tariffs belongs to the services of state preschool educational organizations (15.2%), recreation services (8.8%), consumer services (8.3%), as well as passenger transport services (8.0%). In annual terms, the most significant increase in prices was recorded for services of state preschool educational organizations (15.2%), personal services (12.1%) and passenger transport services (10.7%).

In September of this year, out of the observed types of paid services to the population, household services became leaders in terms of their influence on the growth of the consolidated CPI for the month (0.07 percentage points).

Of the main observed types of paid services to the population, the contribution of the increase in tariffs for household services (0.38 p.p.) to the increase in the consolidated CPI relative to the end of 2019 was more significant. In addition, a significant contribution was made by the increase in the cost of passenger transport services (0.25 p.p.), medical services (0.19 p.p.), as well as services of preschool educational organizations (0.08 p.p.). With regard to the impact on the growth of the aggregate indicator in annual terms, the leading positions continue to be held by household services (0.55 percentage points), passenger transport services (0.33 percentage points) and medical services (0.24 percentage points). In total, they provided over 80% of the overall impact of the increase in tariffs for services.