Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Overall, the analysis of entrepreneurs’ sentiments regarding the current business situation and their expectations for the year has a positive tone, with the most notable growth observed in the agriculture sector. At the same time, fluctuations were observed throughout the year, particularly in the industrial sector. By the end of the year, optimism had increased, and all sectors showed positive results.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of the business climate analysis for 2024, based on surveys of entrepreneurs across the country. From the collected data, a business climate indicator was formed, which reflects current assessments of the business environment and expectations.

The business climate change indicator was built using the IFO Institute (Germany) methodology. During the surveys, business leaders assess the current and expected changes in business activity based on production dynamics, demand, prices, and other indicators.

Composite Business Climate

Throughout the year, the composite business climate indicator showed variability, with an average annual value of 53 points (on a scale from -100 to +100), which characterizes the business environment in Uzbekistan as positive. The highest values were recorded in January, at 61 points, while the lowest values were observed in October, at 42 points, due to a decline in industrial indicators from 72 to 31 points.

However, from May to September, there was a recovery in businesses’ optimistic expectations. During this period, indicators in industry and agriculture significantly improved, reaching a peak of 63-66 points. By the end of the year, all sectors demonstrated growth in optimism, as evidenced by an index value of 56 points.

Current Business Conditions

The average annual index of the current business condition was 39 points, reflecting an increase in positive assessments among businesses.

The study data shows that the highest proportion of respondents, who rated the current business situation as "good," was recorded in September, reaching 45%, compared to July, when this figure was 37%.

Sectoral analysis reveals that agriculture is the most confident sector, with almost half of businesses rating their current business condition as "good." Meanwhile, in the construction sector, only a quarter of businesses express confidence in their situation.

Business Expectations

Throughout 2024, optimistic business assessments remained at a relatively high level, with an average annual value of 68 points. In sectors such as agriculture, industry, construction, and services, business expectations ranged between 70 and 60 points.

Positive business forecasts regarding demand for the next three months varied between 74% and 57%.

Price assessments fluctuated throughout the year, peaking in April and reaching a low in July, with an average value of 25%.

Current Challenges for Businesses

Over the course of the year, obstacles to doing business gradually decreased. According to the CEIR survey, 54% of entrepreneurs stated that they do not face difficulties in doing business. Specifically, the share of those who claim there are no obstacles increased from 50% in January-July to 62% in the final quarter of 2024.

Overall, there was a decrease in several issues that businesses face compared to the previous year. For example, concerns about financing decreased from 15% to 13%, and obstacles related to land acquisition fell from 7% to 4%.

In the industrial sector, there was a reduction in financing issues by 5%, electricity supply by 3%, and land acquisition by 4%. The level of concern about financing, which reached 24% in March, dropped to 5% by October, indicating a significant improvement in the sector.

In agriculture, one of the main obstacles to development remains water supply, with concern about this issue remaining around 10% over the year. At the beginning of the year, 20% of respondents cited this problem, but by the end of the year, this figure had dropped to 6%. Thus, despite temporary fluctuations, the overall trend points to gradual improvement in water supply in agriculture.

In the construction sector, a lack of demand remains an obstacle, as indicated by changes in the level of concern. At the beginning of the year, 9% of respondents identified this issue, but by March, it decreased to 2% and stood at 3% in December. Short-term spikes in concern about demand may signal a recovery in the market and the adaptation of construction sector participants to changing conditions.

In the services sector, 58% of businesses reported not facing obstacles to doing business, which corresponds to the level observed in 2023. However, 11% pointed out issues with financing, 6% highlighted high tax rates, and 5% raised concerns about electricity supply.