Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Speaking at a roundtable on "Central Asia in a Changing World: On the Way to the Fifth Anniversary Consultative Meeting of Heads of State", First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Akramjon Nematov noted that "the powerful resource, raw materials, production and human potential, a steady trend towards regional integration, coordinated actions of the states of Central Asia, openness to international cooperation, turn Central Asia into an independent and self-sufficient region, a space of mutually beneficial cooperation and healthy competition."

Central Asia continues to enjoy high rates of economic growth. At the end of 2022, the region’s economy grew by 6%, which is 2 times more than the global indicators, which amounted to only 3%. At the same time, growth forecasts, although they have become more restrained, nevertheless remain among the highest in the world - at least 5%.

At the same time, “stability and security, the formation of a capacious interconnected market in Central Asia increase the interest of investors in the region. Particularly since 2016. to 2022 the share of investments in Central Asia in the total volume in the world increased from 1.6% to 2.8%, amounting to about 40 billion dollars in 2022. The total accumulated volume of FDI since 2000 exceeded US$250 billion.”

At the same time, according to the expert, one cannot stop there, it is important to continue work and move forward, to fully utilize the potential of regional cooperation, especially in areas that may pose fundamental challenges for the stable and sustainable development of Central Asia.

First, there are demographic issues. The region is experiencing dynamic population growth, which today has reached 79 million people, and by 2050 will exceed 90–110 million people. This opens up great opportunities, but at the same time creates new challenges. The working-age part of the population will be by 2050. 70% of its total population. Already today, the average age of the region’s population is 27 years, while young people form a significant demographic group - about 60%.

The younger generation needs socialization, education, jobs, housing and social benefits, access to social and political participation. It is important to pursue a coordinated regional policy on these issues, incl. create a common educational space and a common labor market in Central Asia.

Secondly, there are growing problems associated with climate change, primarily with warming. Over the past 30 years, the rate of temperature increase in our region has exceeded the global rate by 2 times. This leads to a shortage of water resources. It is estimated that by 2040, water availability per person in the region may decrease by 25%.

The pace of land degradation is accelerating, natural disasters - droughts, landslides, floods, sandstorms - have become more frequent.

According to World Bank forecasts, without effective climate adaptation measures, by 2050 the aggregate GDP growth of the Central Asian countries may fall by 11%, and crop yields by 30%. All this leads to the intensification of climate migration processes in Central Asia, which by 2050 may reach 2.4 million people.

Third, protectionism is on the rise. Large countries erect multiple barriers and obstacles. To date, more than 30,000 protectionist measures have been adopted, and only about 7,000 trade liberalization measures have been taken. Thus, individual states restrict access to their markets, to financial resources, which reduces the potential for economic growth in the region.

Moreover, the widespread use of sanctions leads to a break in commodity-production and transport-logistics chains.

The combination of these trends causes an increase in prices for energy resources, food, components, provoke inflation and, as a result, a decline in demand for products and production volumes. As a result, unemployment and social tensions are rising.

Therefore, today it is important for us to jointly build up trade and economic ties, increase the region’s competitiveness, its resilience to external shocks, and effectively integrate it into global value chains. This can create an effective economic "safety cushion".

In this regard, I would like to list a few, in my opinion, a number of important tasks on which we should concentrate our common efforts.

First. It is necessary to create a capacious interconnected market, deepen trade relations, develop industrial cooperation and import substitution, using the competitive advantages and complementarity of the economies of our countries. To do this, it is important to ensure the full functioning of the free trade regime, support the cross-border movement of goods, services and capital by eliminating unnecessary bureaucratic processes and harmonizing the regulatory framework in the provision of customs, logistics services, export-import operations.

Second. It is of fundamental importance to implement promising mutually beneficial transport, communication and logistics projects. This is becoming more and more in demand as deliveries to the East grow, new ways to enter the markets of China, India, the Persian Gulf and Europe are sought.

In this regard, the region can and already offers interesting options for the development of interconnectedness both within the North-South corridor, the Trans-Caspian route and within the framework of projects with access to South Asia through Afghanistan.

It is also necessary to give priority to the development of digitalization of logistics chains, including the processes of passing goods and vehicles through border points, optimizing transport and other costs in the cost of export products, and increasing the speed of delivery of goods.

Third. A coordinated policy on mitigation and adaptation to new natural and climatic conditions should be pursued based on the principles of integrated management, interdisciplinary and intersectoral interaction, and inclusive partnership between the state, society and business. It is necessary to adopt comprehensive documents, develop common approaches and standards that ensure effective interaction between the countries of the region in response to climate change, and consolidate efforts in attracting climate finance.

Fourth. It is important to unite efforts to ensure food security. This requires the liberalization of regional trade in food products, the rejection of the policy of "food nationalism and protectionism." It is also necessary to focus on the implementation of agro-industrial cooperation, the development of programs for the joint cultivation and processing of crops, taking into account the competitive advantages of the states of the region.

Today, new approaches are especially needed in such areas as the formation of sustainable schemes for the production of food products and optimal supply chains, the harmonization of technical regulations for the growth of intraregional trade, and the creation of an integrated system for monitoring food security in Central Asia.

Fifth. It is necessary to increase the effectiveness of joint actions in the field of countering threats to regional security, primarily religious extremism and terrorism, illegal trafficking in narcotic and psychotropic substances, human trafficking, and crime in cyberspace.

To this end, it is important to institutionalize a regional security dialogue.

At the same time, “the key imperative of the general regional policy should remain the openness of Central Asia to the world, its constructive interaction with external forces. This is the optimal formula that meets both the interests of the Central Asian countries themselves and our foreign partners. This will also become the most important condition for ensuring security and stability in Central Asia,” A. Nematov concluded.