Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Deputy Director of the International Institute of Central Asia (MICA) Bakhtiyor Mustafayev shared such an assessment of the prospects for the development of the situation in Afghanistan during his participation in the special session on Afghanistan of the XIII Convention of the Russian International Studies Association, which took place on 15 October at MGIMO.

The geographic location of Afghanistan plays a strategically important role in the development of trans-regional economic, transport and other infrastructure projects. In particular, Afghanistan can make a significant contribution to the promotion of trans-regional interconnection between Central Asia and South Africa. Afghanistan is a natural bridge between Eurasia and South Asia, and between East and West Asia.

At the same time, the persisting problems related to security in Afghanistan hinder the implementation of any projects in the field of economy, transport and energy.

The situation is aggravated by the protracted process of forming a legitimate and capable government. It is important to understand that a new reality has formed in Afghanistan and the coming to power of the Taliban is already a fait accompli. The Taliban today are the only force in Afghanistan that has the greatest control over the military-political and economic situation in the country, which necessitates establishing contacts with them. At the same time, the dialogue should not be considered as official recognition. Official recognition must be commensurate with the Taliban's compliance with the demands of the international community.

Isolation of Afghanistan will once again create conditions for turning the country into a source of challenges and threats. Without political contacts and economic ties of Afghanistan with the outside world, it is impossible to restore statehood and economy.

In this context, the following factors are noteworthy:

First, ignoring the current authorities of Afghanistan will further escalate the situation in the country - the emergence of a humanitarian crisis, the intensification of the activities of terrorist organizations, the beginning of a new civil war, the formation of various groups of countries by interests, which will delay the achievement of peace in Afghanistan.

Thus, according to the UN Security Council, currently 22 out of 28 international terrorist groups operate in the country, including IS, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan.

Second, ensuring long-term and sustainable peace in Afghanistan depends on the formation of an inclusive political process, the achievement of national accord in Afghanistan.

Today, more than 38 million people live in this country, while more than 50% of them are representatives of ethnic minorities - Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens, Hazaras, from 10 to 15% of the population are Shiite Muslims, there are representatives of other confessions.

Third, continued economic assistance to Afghanistan is essential. It's no secret that over 70% of the Afghan budget (US$11 billion) comes from external funds. According to UN data, to date, more than 70% of the population of Afghanistan (27.3 million out of 38 million) live in poverty.

Further deterioration of the social and economic situation in Afghanistan will create favorable conditions for replenishing the ranks of various extremist and terrorist organizations.

In this regard, despite the withdrawal of coalition troops from Afghanistan, the international community must continue to provide social and economic assistance to Afghanistan. Addressing the Afghan issue on a leftover basis will negate all the achievements made over the past 20 years.

Fourth, control over the weapons that the Taliban had at their disposal. According to the American Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (SIGAR), since 2001, the United States has provided the Afghan security forces with weapons and military equipment worth about US$83 billion, 600 thousand units small arms, 64 thousand machine guns and 176 artillery pieces.

Fifth, the lack of sufficient coordination of the approaches and positions of regional countries and world powers in relation to the Taliban. Moreover, attempts by regional countries to secure themselves by strengthening their own borders will only have a limited and short-term effect.

In this context, the proposals and initiatives of the President of Uzbekistan, voiced during the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO (September 2021), draw attention to themselves. In particular, Shavkat Mirziyoyev stressed the need to develop coordinated approaches to the situation in Afghanistan, which will create a powerful foundation for achieving peace and stability in this country.

First, an early settlement of the situation in Afghanistan opens up new strategic opportunities for the implementation of major economic, transport and energy projects, the beneficiaries of which will be all countries involved in resolving the Afghan crisis, without exception.

In particular, the implementation of infrastructure projects will allow Afghanistan to: 1) attract significant investments in infrastructure and high-tech projects and ensure economic growth; 2) to unleash the potential of the extractive industry, to widely use the available mineral resources; 3) create new jobs; 4) increase the transport and transit potential.

For example, despite the fact that Afghanistan officially joined One Belt, One Road initiative in 2016, and a year later became a member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, due to the internal situation in Afghanistan, no infrastructure projects were launched within the framework of One Belt, One Road initiative. Although within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, 165 countries have implemented 13,000 projects with a total value of over US$843 billion.

According to the World Bank, the implementation of the BRI initiative could increase global trade by 6.2%, trade among participating countries by 9.7%, and for low-income countries it will increase foreign direct investment to 7.6%.

Second, peace in Afghanistan will contribute to strengthening trans-regional connectivity between Central and South Asia. In particular, the CA countries will have access to the growing consumer market of South Asia with a population of 1.9 billion people and a GDP of 3.5 trillion. dollars. The commodity turnover of the countries of Central Asia and South Asia does not correspond to the existing potential of the two regions.

For example, at the end of 2020, the total trade between Central Asian countries and South Asian countries amounted to US$4.4 billion, or 3.2% of their total foreign trade turnover (US$142.6 billion).

There will be a real opportunity to connect Central and South Asia by land route. In particular, with the full implementation of the Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway project initiated by Uzbekistan, the transportation of goods from Uzbekistan to Pakistan will have to spend not 35 days, but only 3-5 days. According to forecast estimates, the cost of transporting a container from Tashkent to Karachi will be approximately US$1400-1600, while on the already used route "Tashkent-Bandar-Abbas" – US$2600-3000.

Moreover, new opportunities are opening up for the practical implementation of such regional projects as TAPI and CASA-1000.

Third, the settlement of the situation in Afghanistan will increase the efficiency of large transport projects, which are an important factor in consolidating the efforts of the international community. In particular, there will be an opportunity for the practical implementation of transport projects along the route: 1) China - Central Asia - Russia - Europe; 2) China - Central and Western Asia - Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea; 3) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia - Indian Ocean.

This will create an extensive transport system in Eurasia, which will reduce the delivery time of goods from China to Europe to ten days compared to the current delivery time for container cargo by sea from China to Europe in 45-60.

In general, Afghanistan is an important component of not only regional, but also international security. Despite the continuing difficult situation, Afghanistan can become a space of good-neighborliness, mutual understanding and trust, a zone of diversified progress.