The Central Bank carefully monitors the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - In connection with the dissemination of different opinions in the media and social networks, as well as in order to prevent possible speculation regarding future changes in the level of the exchange rate of the sum, the Central Bank reports the following.
A significant depreciation of the exchange rates of national currencies of the main trading partners, in particular the Russian ruble and the Kazakh tenge in previous years, after a certain period had a corresponding effect on the dynamics of the sum.
An important distinguishing feature in the previous conditions was that the growth rate in the global economy was dynamic or positive, which together with the high investment and business activity in the economy supported the growth trend of imports and demand for foreign currency.
Along with these circumstances, an increase in credit activity and government spending reinforced the impact of the devaluation of national currencies of major trading partners on the exchange rate of the soum.
Currently, against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, the decline in world production and falling oil prices, weakening currencies of the main trading partners are observed.
It should be noted that the nature of the current situation in the world economy and the transfer of its effects on the national economy, including the foreign exchange market, may slightly differ from those global economic conditions that took place earlier.
In addition, the application of a balanced approach to lending as part of measures to ensure the financial stability of banks, as well as the transition to the active use of market-based instruments of monetary policy since the beginning of the year, in aggregate, began to have a direct and indirect impact on the situation in the foreign exchange market.
At the same time, the share of foreign capital in the form of long-term loans and investments attracted by the private and public sectors gradually increased in the supply structure in the domestic foreign exchange market along with money transfers.
In particular, the volume of foreign currency sales to banks by the population over the past 4 consecutive months exceeded the volume of remittances.
As a result, despite the depreciation of the ruble and tenge, the introduction of restrictions on the movement of human resources and, consequently, the emergence of temporary dynamics of a decrease in remittances, the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market remains stable and balanced under the current dynamics of the exchange rate and economic conditions, which can be explained by the following:
First, the expected global recession, along with measures taken against the pandemic, lead to a decrease in economic activity. At the same time, a decrease in demand for imports and, consequently, for foreign currency is expected;
Secondly, against the background of an inevitable slowdown in economic growth and measures to revise the schedule and extend the maturity of loans of industries affected by the economic effect of coronavirus, it is expected that the demand for credit resources of banks will significantly decrease compared to the originally projected level;
Thirdly, the formation of an anti-crisis fund, mainly by attracting external resources, will serve as an additional source of foreign exchange supply;
Fourth, the increase in gold prices makes it possible to increase the volume of constant foreign exchange interventions carried out on the basis of the principle of neutrality of gold and currency reserves by 30% compared to last year.
It must be emphasized that today the receipt of foreign exchange earnings and the sale of foreign currency by business entities remain at the level of previous months.
The sum of devaluation accumulated since April 2019 was close to the depreciation of the currencies of the main trading partners.
At the same time, the relative increase in the volume of foreign currency purchases by individuals is explained by the growth of devaluation expectations. At the same time, it is assumed that stabilization of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and Kazakh tenge in the future, in turn, will have a positive impact on the reduction of devaluation expectations.
The observed sharp jumps in the exchange rates in the trading partner countries are most likely to stabilize as a result of measures taken in these countries. As the world situation associated with coronavirus normalizes, conditions in global markets will gradually stabilize and the possibility of a certain strengthening of the above national currencies is not ruled out.
The formation of the sum exchange rate in the future is associated with the demand for imports, the level of foreign exchange earnings from exports and cross-border money transfers. The results of the analysis carried out to this day show that slight adjustments are possible in the dynamics of the exchange rate and there is a low probability of a sharp devaluation of the sum.
The Central Bank carefully monitors the current situation and appropriately assesses the nature of the influence of the spread of coronavirus on the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market, taking into account economic conditions, and will take the necessary measures to ensure macroeconomic stability.
At the same time, in order to prevent the occurrence of unjustified speculative expectations among the population and business entities, information on the state of the foreign exchange market and factors affecting it will be published on an ongoing basis.
Information on the exchange rate and exchange trading volumes is published on the telegram channel of the Central Bank, as well as on the website of the Republican Currency Exchange on a daily basis.